| Market Research A to Z | Company Profiles A to Z | Register | Contact Us |
| +44 (0) 203 086 8600 Call us on |
Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q1 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Democratic Republic of Congo |
Published |
4 February 2009 |
Number of Pages |
70 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The new Republic of Congo (RoC) Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.19% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 2.62% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.57mn b/d in 2007. It should average 3.65mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 4.17mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2007 averaged 10.31mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 100bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 183bcm targeted for 2013, representing 83.3% growth. Production of 193bcm in 2007 should reach 358bcm in 2013 (+85.2%), which implies net exports rising from 94bcm in 2007 to 175bcm by the end of the period. RoC makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89 in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second-biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75 to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
RoC real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 7.1% for 2008, up from 3.7% in 2007. We are assuming 5.0% growth in 2009, 4.5% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011/12. We expect oil demand to rise from 6,000b/d in 2007 to 8,040b/d in 2013. State oil company Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Approximately one-third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from 222,000b/d in 2007 to 339,000b/d in 2013. Gas production should reach 1.5bcm by 2013. Consumption is expected to track the production trend.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in RoC oil and gas liquids production of 38.0%, with volumes peaking at 360,000b/d in 2009/10, before falling steadily to 306,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 71.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 10,300b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be a need for imports or any potential for net exports. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
RoC occupies fifth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, although just one point behind Nigeria and Angola. It is in no position to move higher over the medium term. The county’s score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. The country is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked ninth behind Angola, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and forecast GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country’s low retail site intensity represent relatively strong suits.
Last Viewed
Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q1 2009Company Financials McDonald's Corporation
Fuji Co., Ltd. - Financial Analysis Review
Edil Invest SA (Romania) - Company Profile
Primofin d.d. (Slovenia) - Company Profile
Become an Affiliate
Do you manage an industry specific website or blog? Are you looking to monetise your web traffic further? Are you a B2B website?
Why not offer your visitors industry specific strategic market reports and company profiles? Our Affiliate Program enables you to provide quality content on your website and to earn money from passing on visitors to our website. If a sale is made from your visitor, you earn commission (a fixed percentage of the price of a product).
Custom Research
Cannot find what you need? We can tailor a report for you. Complete the Custom Research Form and we will provide a quote.
News
Gas may be the future for Australia's energy export industry
Distributed Generation Market for Renewable Technologies to Hit USD 66.4 Billion by 2015
Depleting Water Reserves in China Driving Investment in Water Retention Technology
Market Insights
Currently there are no Market Insights in this sector.
