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Saudi Arabia Power Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Saudi Arabia |
Published |
19 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
52 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Saudi electricity generation is forecast to increase by 79.4% during 2009 to 2019
The new Saudi Arabia Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 17.18% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014. Our MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 31.3% from 2009.
Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Saudi Arabia’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 194TWh, or 17.81% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 18.72% of thermal generation.
For Saudi Arabia, in 2008 oil was the dominant fuel, accounting for 59.7% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 40.3%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn toe by 2014, representing 25.1% growth over the period since 2009. Saudi Arabia’s estimated 2009 market share of 24.65% is set to rise to 24.67% by 2014.
Saudi Arabia is now fifth place above South Africa in our updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its considerable market size, low level of energy import dependency and particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with little progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Saudi Arabia is now three points behind Iran, but has the longer-term potential to catch its Gulf rival if risk issues reduce the Iranian score.
We are now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.36% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being 0.40%. The population is expected to expand from 24.4mn to 27.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 42% and 22% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 189TWh in 2009 to 257TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a modest generation surplus, assuming 6.7% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 79.4%, which is near the top of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 29.8% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 38.2% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 25.2% in 2009-2014 to 11.5%, representing 39.6% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 79.4% between 2009 and 2019. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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