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Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Singapore |
Published |
23 November 2009 |
Number of Pages |
67 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.75% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil. This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Singapore’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 1.85%, and market share is expected to rise to 2.18% by 2014. There is no gas production in Singapore.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%.
The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level.
Singapore’s real GDP decline in 2009 is estimated at 3.6%, compared with growth of 1.1% in 2008. We expect average annual 3.6% growth in 2010-2014. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 1.09mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 8.5bcm in 2009 to 12.7bcm by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Singapore’s domestic oil consumption from 947,000b/d to 1.26mn b/d (+33.09%), with the island’s refining capacity rising from 1.26mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 8.5bcm in 2009 to a possible 18.2bcm by 2019, driven by power generation requirements. LNG imports are expected to commence in 2013 and reach 5.0bcm per annum through the initial import terminal. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Singapore now ranks equal 10th (alongside Hong Kong and Japan) in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country sits ahead of South Korea and well clear of bottom-placed Taiwan in the upstream league table. The country now ranks equal fourth with Australia in the updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is now three points clear of South Korea, and should be able to retain its lead.
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