Singapore Power Report 2012

Singapores energy mix is dominated by thermal sources – mainly gas and oil, although there are plans for some coal-fired capacity. Renewable energy plays, and will continue to play, a minor role, although the islands small size does make it a suitable test bed for pilot renewable energy projects. Given the demands of Singapores energy-intensive industry sector, BMI believes that the country will continue to rely upon thermal sources of energy over the forecast period, although it will go some way to minimising the risks associated with energy imports – particularly gas imports.

The 2012 Singapore Power Report from BMI forecasts that the countrys power consumption will rise from 41.42TWh in 2011 to 56.34TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 3.26% in 2011-2021. All power supply will continue to be thermal, with the exception of a possible small contribution from renewables – which will grow slightly towards the end of the forecast period.

Gas-fired power generation will account for the majority of electricity provision, with its share of total power generation rising from an estimated 81.76% in 2011 to 86.49% by 2021. This will be boosted by the opening of Singapores first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which is scheduled to begin operations in 2013. Coal-fired power generation plays a small but growing role, while oils importance will decline over the forecast period as oil sites are converted to gas facilities – such as at Senokos Steam Plant Stage II, which will switch from oil to gas with commercial operations beginning in H212.

Singapore now holds seventh position behind Malaysia in Sri Lanka in BMIs updated Power Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), thanks to its modest installed capacity and generation, and a high level of import dependency. A poor performance in the industry risks component pulls down its total score, although improvements are being made to reduce its vulnerability to variations in gas prices.

Key developments for Singapores power sector this year include:

- GMR sold a 30% stake in GMR Energy (Singapore) to Malaysias PETRONAS in September 2011 for SGD50mn; the share transfer was completed in December 2011.

- In March 2012, TP Utilities, a wholly-owned unit of Tuas Power, announced its plans to add 650 tonnes per hour of steam capacity to its clean coal/ biomass multi-utilities facility on Jurong Island, in a move to meet rising energy demand from industry.

- Singapores Energy Market Authority revealed in February 2012 that work was underway on Singapores first LNG terminal, which is scheduled to begin operations in Q213.