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South Africa Power Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
South Africa |
Published |
19 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
67 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
South African electricity generation is forecast to increase by 37.6% during 2009 to 2019
The new South Africa Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 17.95% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)’s regional power generation by 2014. Further supply disruptions can be expected if the country cannot add significantly to existing capacity. Our MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, a rise of 31.3% from 2009. Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. South Africa’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 246TWh, or 21.22% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 18.19% of regional thermal generation.
In 2008 coal was the dominant fuel in South Africa, accounting for 77.7% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 19.9% and nuclear with a 2.3% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn toe by 2014, representing 25.1% growth over the period since 2009. South Africa’s estimated 2009 market share of 17.09% is set to fall to 15.33% by 2014. The country’s estimated 13.0TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 13.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA nuclear market falling from 100% to 57.45% over the period.
South Africa is sixth, behind Saudi Arabia, in our Power Business Environment Ratings, despite its market size, low level of energy import dependency and reasonably high proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not yet competitive, with little progress towards privatisation, and the regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive.
We forecast that South African real GDP growth will average 3.22% a year in 2010-2014, with a fall of 1.80% in 2009. The population is expected to expand from 49.2mn to 51.7mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise 56% and 10%, respectively. Power consumption is set to increase from an estimated 202TWh in 2009 to 234TWh by 2014, maintaining the current market tightness if the country can deliver only our forecast annual average of 1.5% generation growth. Between 2009 and 2019 we forecast an increase in South African electricity generation of 37.6%, the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 21.1% over 2014-2019, up from 13.7% in 2009- 2014. PED growth is set to increase from 12.3% in 2009-2014 to 14.2%, or 28.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 200% in hydropower use, from a very low base, in 2009-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 29% in 2009-2019, with nuclear consumption upby 85%. Details of the long-term power forecasts can be found in this report.
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