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South Africa Power Report Q3 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
South Africa |
Published |
21 July 2010 |
Number of Pages |
67 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The new South Africa Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 18.96% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)’s regional power generation by 2014. Further supply disruptions can be expected if the country cannot add significantly to existing capacity. The MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation. South Africa’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 248TWh, or 23.30% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 21.19% of regional thermal generation.
Coal was the dominant fuel in South Africa in 2009, accounting for an estimated 76.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20.0% and nuclear with a 2.3% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. South Africa’s estimated 2009 market share of 14.57% is set to fall to 13.21% by 2014. The country’s estimated 13.0TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 13.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA nuclear market falling from 100% to 57.45% over the period. South Africa now shares fifth place with Iran and Kenya in the updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and reasonably high proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not yet competitive, with little progress towards privatisation, and the regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive.
We forecast that South African real GDP growth will average 4.10% a year in 2010-2014, with 2010 growth put at 3.00%. The population is expected to expand from 49.2mn to 51.7mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise 40% and 17% respectively. Power consumption is set to increase from an estimated 202TWh in 2009 to 254TWh by 2014, maintaining the current market tightness if the country can deliver only our forecast annual average of 2.8% generation growth in 2010- 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019 we forecast an increase in South African electricity generation of 35.2%, the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 21.1% over 2014-2019, up from 11.7% in 2010- 2014. PED growth is set to increase from 11.1% in 2010-2014 to 13.7%, or 26.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 200% in hydro-power use, from a very low base, in 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 26% in 2010-2019, with nuclear consumption up by 80%. Details of the long-term power forecasts can be found in this report.
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