South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010

Executive Summary .......7
SWOT Analysis........9
South Korea Political SWOT ................... 9
South Korea Economic SWOT ............... 10
South Korea Business Environment SWOT.......... 11
South Korea Energy Market Overview................12
Global Oil Market Outlook Q110 ...................14
Not So Bleak Midwinter .... 14
Oil Price Forecasts.... 15
Global Oil Market Review Q409 ....................16
Quarterly Trends ....... 18
Nigeria And Iraq Pose Problems ................ 19
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook Q110...........21
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............ 21
Short-Term Demand Outlook...................... 21
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................ 23
Short-Term Supply Outlook ........................ 23
Longer-Term Supply And Demand..................... 24
Oil Price Assumptions....... 25
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010................. 25
Table: Oil Price Forecasts..................... 25
Regional Energy Market Overview ...............26
Oil Supply And Demand.... 26
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) ........... 27
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) .............. 28
Oil: Downstream ......... 29
Gas Supply And Demand ..................... 30
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) .............. 30
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) .......... 31
Liquefied Natural Gas....... 32
Business Environment Ranking ...................33
Asia Pacific Region...... 33
Composite Scores......... 33
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating......... 34
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating.... 35
Upstream Scores... 35
Downstream Scores ..... 36
South Korea Upstream Rating – Overview .......... 36
South Korea Upstream Rating – Potential Returns............ 36
South Korea Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns ..... 36
South Korea Downstream Rating – Overview............. 37
South Korea Downstream Rating – Potential Returns ....... 37
South Korea Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns................... 37
Business Environment .......38
Legal Framework....... 38
Infrastructure........ 40
Labour Force........ 42
Foreign Investment Policy ..................... 43
Tax Regime ........... 45
Security Risk ......... 46
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................47
Oil And Gas Reserves ....... 47
Oil Supply And Demand.... 47
Gas Supply And Demand ..................... 48
LNG............. 48
Refining And Oil Products Trade................ 49
Revenues/Import Costs...... 49
Table: South Korea Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts..................... 50
Other Energy ...... 51
Table: South Korea Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts ................... 54
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario.............. 54
Long-Term Energy Outlook ........................ 54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure .....................55
Oil Refineries...... 55
Service Stations.......... 55
Oil Storage.......... 55
LNG Terminals .......... 55
Gas Storage ........ 55
Gas Pipelines...... 56
Macroeconomic Outlook .....57
Table: South Korea – Macroeconomic Forecasts ....... 58
Competitive Landscape......59
Executive Summary.... 59
Table: Key Players – South Korean Oil And Gas Sector ... 60
Overview/State Role... 60
Government Policy...... 60
International Energy Relations ................... 62
Table: Key Upstream Player.................. 64
Table: Key Downstream Players .................. 64
Company Monitor.........65
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) ................ 65
Korea Gas........... 70
SK Energy........... 74
GS Caltex – Summary ..................... 78
S-Oil – Summary... 78
Hyundai Oilbank – Summary................. 79
Woodside Petroleum – Summary .................. 79
POSCO – Summary ..... 80
Daewoo International – Summary ................ 80
Glossary Of Terms .......81
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology.............82
Introduction ........ 82
Ratings Overview....... 82
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure .................... 83
Indicators............ 84
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology............ 84
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology .............. 85
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts.............87
Regional Oil Demand ....... 87
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) ........... 87
Regional Oil Supply... 88
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) .............. 88
Regional Refining Capacity ........................ 89
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)........... 89
Regional Gas Demand ...... 90
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) .............. 90
Regional Gas Supply......... 91
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) .......... 91
South Korea Country Overview .................. 91
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ................ 92
BMI Forecast Modelling......93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............... 93
Energy Industry ......... 93
Cross Checks ...... 94
Sources ............... 94