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Spain Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Spain |
Published |
4 November 2009 |
Number of Pages |
52 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest Spain Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 11.84% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making no appreciable contribution to supply.
In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached 13.62mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to ease to around 13.60mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 4.90mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.77mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were 8.72mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 9.84mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed 445bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 478bcm targeted for 2013, representing 7.3% growth. Production of 269bcm in 2008 should rise to 278bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the 2008 level of 176bcm to some 267bcm by the end of the period. Spain’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was 8.76%, while it has no meaningful share of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 9.22%.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, the report is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The full year outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Spanish real GDP growth is forecast to fall by 3.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 1.0% in 2008. We are assuming an average 0.7% growth in 2009-2013. In terms of oil demand, the Spanish market continues to grow more rapidly than the EU norm, although there is likely to be a reduction in 2009 consumption thanks to economic weakness. Beyond 2009/10, we expect to see 0.5%-1.0% annual demand growth. Oil consumption has risen from just over 1mn b/d in 1990 to 1.57mn b/d in 2008. Our target for 2013 is demand at an average 1.61mn b/d. No meaningful local oil supply is available, with crude imports reaching 1.61mn b/d by 2013. Our gas demand forecast is for an average annual growth rate of up to 6%, taking the 2013 total consumption to 44.1bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Spanish oil and gas liquids consumption of 10.2%, with volumes rising steadily from 1.57mn b/d in 2008 to 1.74mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the 2008 level of 39bcm to 53bcm by 2018, based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to the Country Risk team, Spain’s long-term political risk score is 80.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.5 and the global average of 63.6. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.2, below the Developed Markets average of 70.0 and above the global average of 53.7.
Spain has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a very small upstream oil and gas segment, dominated by domestic companies. Downstream oil is controlled largely by former state company Repsol YPF.
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