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Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Taiwan |
Published |
3 December 2009 |
Number of Pages |
65 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.93% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil. This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014, the only net exporter will be Malaysia In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Taiwan’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 2.64%, while its share of production was minimal. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.49%.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. The 2009 decline in Taiwanese real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 4.5%, compared with growth of 0.1% in 2008. We are assuming an annual average 4.1% growth in 2010-2014. State-owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is tasked with securing oil and gas supply, but has no significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 1.14mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is expected to rise from the estimated 2009 figure of 12.1bcm to 14.5bcm by 2014, supplied largely by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Taiwan’s oil consumption from an estimated 1.04mn b/d to 1.26mn b/d, with the country’s refining capacity rising from 1.20mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 12.1bcm in 2009 to a possible 16.0bcm by 2019, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Taiwan still ranks 14th and last in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country also ranks last in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, some distance behind nearest rival Malaysia. The poor showing reflects its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site intensity, and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.
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