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Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Taiwan |
Published |
1 September 2010 |
Number of Pages |
65 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.67% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bcm and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Taiwan's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 2.33%, while its share of production is minimal. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.17%.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
The 2010 rise in Taiwanese real GDP is estimated by BMI to be 5.0%, followed by forecast average annual growth of 4.7% in 2010-2014. State-owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) has been given the task of securing oil and gas supply, but has no significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 1.11mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 figure of 11.6bcm to 13.5bcm by 2014, supplied largely by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Taiwan's oil consumption from an estimated 1.02mn b/d to 1.22mn b/d, with the country's refining capacity rising from an estimated 1.20mn b/d to 1.46mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 11.6bcm in 2010 to a possible 15.0bcm by 2019, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Taiwan takes 15th and last place in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, lagging well behind Hong Kong and South Korea. Taiwan also ranks 15th and last in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country is last in BMI's downstream Business Environment Ratings, some distance behind nearest rivals Malaysia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The poor showing reflects its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site intensity, and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.
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