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Thailand Power Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Thailand |
Published |
21 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
For Thailand, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 42.1% of 2008 primary energy demand
The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that Thailand will account for 1.90% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with a broadly balanced supply/demand picture. The report’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is 7,116 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,149TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 28.6%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,590TWh, accounting for 78.6% of the total electricity supplied in the Asia Pacific region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,046TWh, implying 26.0% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.0%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Thailand’s thermal generation in 2008 was 140TWh, or 2.51% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 2.33% of thermal generation.
For Thailand, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 42.1% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 38.6%, coal at 17.6% and hydro-electricity with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,862mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 25.1% growth from the 2008 level. Thailand’s 2008 market share of 2.25% is set to fall to 2.09% by 2013. Thailand’s 6.9TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 9.2TWh by 2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market easing from 0.78% to 0.68% over the period. While there is no existing or near-term nuclear capacity, tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but there is no clear government policy.
Thailand is now ranked ninth above Hong Kong in the enlarged and updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories.
The country is at little risk from Hong Kong below it, and has the long-term potential to catch Malaysia or the Philippines above it.
BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 2.12% per annum between 2009 and 2013, with the 2009 estimate being a decline of 3.80%. Population is expected to expand from 64.3mn to 66.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 40% and 11% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 146TWh in 2008 to 167TWh by the end of the forecast period, requiring some power imports during periods of peak demand, assuming 3.2% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 44.7%, which is near the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 22.8% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 17.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 16.1% in 2008-2013 to 16.5%, representing 35.3% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 45% between 2008 and 2018, with thermal power generation also forecast to increase by 45% over the same period.
More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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