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Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Trinidad and Tobago |
Published |
2 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
79 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.47% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing only 1.23% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 7.95mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.73mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.48mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 9.85mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.58mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to 1.90mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.13mn b/d in 2013. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 205.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 243.6bcm targeted for 2013, representing 18.2% growth. Production of 212.3bcm in 2008 should reach 280.4bcm in 2013, and implies 36.8bcm of net exports the end of the period. Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) contributed 9.24% to 2008 regional gas consumption, while producing 18.52%. By 2013 it is expected to consume 10.78% of the region’s gas, contributing 19.62% to supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, the report is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
T&T’s real GDP growth is now forecast at 0.8% for 2009, down from 3.4% in 2008. We are assuming 2.2% growth in 2010, 3.5% in 2011, 3.8% in 2012, followed by 4.2% in 2013. The emphasis of several major international oil company (IOC) partners to the state in the hydrocarbons segment is on gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export, with limited potential for oil production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 130,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 160,000b/d in 2009. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 5% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 40,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from 39bcm in 2008 to 55bcm over the period, with net exports growing from 20bcm to 29bcm by 2013, largely in the form of LNG.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in T&T oil and gas liquids production of 32.9%, with liquids volumes falling steadily from 149,000b/d to 100,000b/d, largely in the form of gas liquids associated with gas field developments. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 58.3%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 51,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from 39bcm in 2008 to 70bcm in 2018. With demand growth of 76.3%, this implies export potential rising from 20bcm to 37bcm between 2008 and 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
T&T still ranks fifth, ahead of Argentina, in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its natural gas resource base and rising output. It stands two points clear of Argentina, but its combination of attractive licensing terms, competitive landscape and moderate country risk is probably not sufficient to move it further up the league table over the medium term. The country now ranks fourth behind Argentina in the updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its modest level of oil consumption, region-leading refining capacity expansion and relatively high retail site intensity.
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