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United Arab Emirates Power Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
United Arab Emirates |
Published |
19 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The new UAE Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 6.35% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) power generation by 2014. Our MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264TWh terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 31.3% between 2009 and the end of the period.
Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The UAE’s thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 76.5TWh, or 6.60% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 6.92% of thermal generation.
In 2008, gas was the dominant fuel in the UAE, accounting for 69.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 30.5%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 25.1% growth over the period since 2009. The UAE’s estimated 2008 market share of 10.13% is set to climb to 10.63% by 2014.
The UAE is now ranked second in our updated Power Business Environment rating, having this quarter overtaken Egypt thanks to its developed competitive landscape, privatisation progress, population and power consumption growth. The size of the power market is relatively small and there remains a relatively high level of regulation. The UAE is just one point behind regional leader Qatar, but it is unlikely to be able to mount a near-term challenge for the top slot.
We are now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 4.66% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being a decline of 2.90%. Population is expected to expand from 4.70mn to 5.50mn over the period to 2014, with GDP per capita and power consumption per capita forecast to increase by 34% and 24% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 68.2TWh in 2009 to 99.2TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing a broadly balanced market if the country delivers the assumed 5.4% annual growth in electricity generation.
We are forecasting an increase in UAE electricity generation of 85.1% between 2009 and 2019, which is near the top of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 34.4% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 37.7% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 31.3% in 2009-2014 to 30.7%, representing 71.6% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 85.1% between 2009 and 2019. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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