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United Arab Emirates Power Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
United Arab Emirates |
Published |
28 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
56 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Gas accounted for 69.5% of United Arab Emirates' primary energy demand in 2008
The new UAE Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 6.34% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) power generation by 2013. The MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The UAE’s thermal generation in 2008 was around 77.2TWh, or 6.80% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 6.81% of thermal generation.
For the UAE, in 2008 gas was the dominant fuel, accounting for 69.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 30.5%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. The UAE’s 2008 market share of 10.23% is set to climb to 10.49% by 2013.
The UAE is now ranked second in the updated Power Business Environment rating, having this quarter slipped behind Egypt in spite of its developed competitive landscape, privatisation progress, population and power consumption growth. The size of the power market is relatively small and there remains a relatively high level of regulation. The UAE is just one point behind Egypt, so could mount a fresh challenge for the top slot. However, its stiffest long-term competition is likely to come from Qatar.
The report is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 4.16% per annum between 2009 and 2013, with the 2009 forecast being a decline of 3.00%. Population is expected to expand from 4.70mn to 5.40mn over the period to 2013, with GDP per capita and power consumption per capita forecast to increase by 17% and 3% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 70TWh in 2008 to 82TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing a broadly balanced market if the country delivers the assumed 5.5% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in UAE electricity generation of 72.2%, which is near the top of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 34.4% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 28.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 23.8% in 2008-2013 to 33.2%, representing 64.9% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 72.2% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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