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United States Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
United States |
Published |
19 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
90 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest US Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 89.44% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 65.30% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.76mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 22.19mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.29mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.95mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.24mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.47mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America in 2009 consumed an estimated 742.0bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 804.3bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748.0bcm in 2009 should ease to 723.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81.3bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 86.93%, while it provided 75.94% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 86.82%, with 74.69% of production.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, we have assumed a global average gasoline price of US$69.53/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in August at almost US$82.30/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 31.7%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$69.69/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$92/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 42.5% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$69.99/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$58.02/bbl, down 33.6% from the previous year’s level. US real GDP is forecast to have fallen by 2.7% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.4% in 2008. We are assuming 2.1% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.12mn b/d in 2009. By 2014, we are forecasting output of 7.15mn b/d. Our estimate for 2009 US oil demand is 18.53mn b/d, thanks to the impact of the economic slowdown on consumption. We now see US oil use hitting 19.85mn b/d by 2014. This would require crude imports of 12.70mn b/d. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a 4.46% rise in US oil production, with output peaking at 7.35mn b/d in 2011/12. Given oil consumption forecast to fall by 3.72%, imports rise from an estimated 11.42mn b/d in 2009 to 12.70mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2009 level of 568bcm to 540bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 645bcm to 698bcm, requiring net imports rising to a 2016 peak of 200bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and LNG. Details of our 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to our Country Risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 85.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 85.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 69.9, just below the Developed Markets average of 70.1 and above the global average of 53.5. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
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