CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
B2B demand for gas and power is contracting across Europe 2
The global economy is contracting; for the first time in decades we are witnessing a reduction in global trade 2
The European economy is in recession but the contraction is expected to ease from 2010 2
Analysis of energy consumption by sector against GDP composition by country can add additional insight into energy consumption outlook 4
Utilities will not be immune to the recession; energy consumption does respond to contractions and expansions in the economy 4
Utilities operating in B2B markets are likely to find the recession more difficult to manage than those focused on B2C 6
Liquidity contraction will present M&A opportunities for the more creditworthy market players 6
Utilities have employed different tactics for raising funds as a means to finance debt 7
Utilities must augment their view of market segmentation to tailor their response according to specific risks 8
Utilities essentially face four potential demand-side risks resulting from the economic downturn 8
Utilities can assess clients according to volume risk and credit risk 8
According to these risk metrics, Datamonitor scores the economic sectors on vulnerability in a downturn 9
Most sectors in the European economy will contract in 2009 but rebound in 2010 10
Analysis of energy consumption by sector reveals that several of the largest consumers carry a high degree of volume risk 10
Europe's steel sector is set to contract sharply through 2009, with some signs of possible recovery in early 2010 11
The struggling construction sector serves as a useful bell-weather for related industries and concurrently for energy demand 12
Europe's automotive industry is struggling with the credit crunch, but remains fundamentally viable, unlike manufacturers in the US 13
The retail sector is struggling with reduced credit availability and low consumer confidence 13
Over-capacity in the UK retail market means that the contraction will be even sharper, producing credit risk in this sector 14
Different sections of the retail sector will suffer, as over supply and falling demand force business out of the market 15
Manufacturing has suffered an extremely sharp downturn, but the rate of contraction is already slowing 15
Utilities are not powerless to act; a range of weapons can be deployed to minimize the threats to revenue arising from B2B demand contraction 17
Utilities can deploy their response according to client-specific risks 17
Supply of credit insurance has tightened as firms have sought to protect themselves from bad debt by effectively out-sourcing risk management 17
Margining is appropriate in sectors with many small firms whose output does not determine energy demand, such as retail 18
Credit scoring is generally of limited value, but can help in targeting stable clients when margining revenues 18
Although turbulent, the B2B market offers safe havens and opportunities 20
State institutions and regulated private industry represent a safe haven for utilities during the downturn, but account for little overall consumption 20
Remedies should be deployed according to the risks that a client entails under the current market conditions 21
Utilities should shape their portfolio according to market size, and the volume and credit risk that each sector represents 21
The nature of the credit crisis means that industrial output should not continue to suffer beyond 2010; energy demand will pick up albeit slowly 22
Large utilities are in a position to make the recession work for them through cheap acquisitions and investment in infrastructure 23
APPENDIX 24
Further reading 24
Ask the analyst 24
Datamonitor consulting 24
Disclaimer 24
List of Figures
Figure 1: EU27 macroeconomic Indicators, 2005-10 3
Figure 2: Eastern Europe will see a steep decline in energy demand 4
Figure 3: There is a weak but positive correlation between energy consumption and economic growth 5
Figure 4: B2B energy markets are more income elastic than B2C 6
Figure 5: Utilities' Revenue Threats 8
Figure 6: TypeFigTitleHere 9
Figure 7: UK energy consumption by economic sector 10
Figure 8: EU steel output year-on-year percentage change, 2004-10 11
Figure 9: EU construction output year-on-year percentage change, 2004-10 12
Figure 10: EU automotive industry output year-on-year percentage change, 2004-10 13
Figure 11: Consumer confidence index 2008-09 14
Figure 12: Average annual growth rate in retail volumes across four decades 14
Figure 13: Individual Retail Sub-Sector Outlooks 15
Figure 14: The UK retail sector is set to shrink by £1.7 billion in 2009 15
Figure 15: EU manufacturing contracted sharply in H2 2008 16
Figure 16: Risk Solution Matrix 17
Figure 17: Sector Profiles, Risks and Responses 20
Figure 18: The traditional view of segmentation cannot respond effectively to recession 21
Figure 19: Relative risk and size of sector by energy consumption 22
Figure 20: Average EU carbon steel price indexed to February 2007 23