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Market |
Finance and Banking |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Argentina |
Published |
13 May 2009 |
Number of Pages |
79 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Despite the stronger-than-expected Q408 real GDP growth figure, we continue to believe that the Argentine economy is likely to suffer substantially in 2009, and have, in fact, revised down our real GDP growth forecast from 0.6% to -1.0%. The negative impact of the drought on the export sector has been a major driver of this revision, as has the large build up in inventory seen in the fourth quarter. A run on the peso as a result of the government's inflationary fiscal policy poses a major downside risk.
Argentine real GDP expanded faster than we anticipated in Q408, coming in at 4.9% y-o-y, which brought the 2008 full-year growth figure to an impressive 7.0%, above the 6.0% expansion we were expecting. That said, the build up of inventory and the deteriorating outlook for the exports sector as a result of the drought, has fueled our downward revision of real GDP growth to -1.0% in 2009. We are also forecasting a 0.9% contraction in 2010, and just 1.2% growth in 2011.
In Latin America, we profile 21 companies. These are AEGON, AGF, AIG, Allianz, AXA, Cardif, CNP, Generali, HDI-Talanx, HSBC Insurance, ING, Liberty Mutual, MAPFRE, MetLife, New York Life, Prudential Financial, QBE, RSA, the Hartford, Principal Financial and Zurich.
Over the 12 months to the end of June 2008, total premiums in Argentina rose by 25% to ARS23.98bn.
Non-life premiums rose by 25% to ARS17.68bn, while life premiums rose by 25% to ARS6.30bn.
Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual non-life premiums will grow by ARS29.11bn, while annual life premiums should grow by ARS5.70bn. Growth in non-life premiums should be driven by the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in non-life penetration from the current level of 1.44% to 1.65%. Growth in life premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in life density from US$46.48 to US$65 per capita. The Insurance Business Environment Rating for Argentina is 53.0.
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