Poland Insurance Report Q4 2010

Writing at the beginning of August 2010, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2009. We have generally been able to use data published in 2009 to adjust our data for the year as a whole. According to the insurance regulator, total premiums in 2009 amounted to PLN51.34bn. This includes non-life premiums of PLN21.06bn and life premiums of PLN30.28bn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be PLN65.0bn, PLN31.21bn and PLN33.79bn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise from 1.58% of GDP in 2009 to 1.70% in 2014, and are looking for life density to rise from US$270 to US$340 per capita.. BMI's proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Poland is 59.7 out of 100.
The results for H110 that are posted by Vienna Insurance Group, Allianz, Generali and other major cross-border groups who have focused on Central and Eastern Europe are, as of late July 2010, yet to be published. We expect, though, that they will show that conditions – in both the non-life and the life segments – have remained difficult throughout much of the region for this year. In Poland, for instance, growth in the non-life segment slowed to 4% in 2009, while life premiums fell by 22%. At this stage, we are looking for single-digit growth in premiums in both segments.

Assuming that we are correct, the Polish insurance sector will be able to look back on the challenges arising from the global financial crisis (and the subsequent fiscal problems for many governments in Europe) with some satisfaction. The contraction of the life segment last year comes after a surge in premiums in 2008 and steady growth in preceding years. Quite unlike their counterparts in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland's life insurers are serving a market that has grown by around 50% since 2005-06. In the non-life segment, the steady growth in premiums that has taken place since 2005 should also be considered something of an achievement.

Poland's Insurance Sector In 2010

Although it was possible for insurers in Poland to increase their profitability through 2009, it has been difficult for them to expand in terms of premiums. Figures released towards the end of 2009 by the regulator, the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority (KNF) in relation to the first three quarters of that year indicated that non-life premiums were, at PLN16.05bn, up 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). By contrast, life premiums were down 24.3%, to PLN22.31bn.

In the non-life segment, Allianz's local operations stood out for suffering a (miniscule) reduction in premiums written; most other players whose business contracted were extremely small. ERGO Hestia was unusual in that it was both large (the second largest company, with a market share of nearly 10%) and rapidly growing, with premiums in the first nine months of 2009 up 17% y-o-y. During the first three quarters of 2009, CASCO stood out for the fall in gross premiums of almost 8%. However, premiums rose for virtually all other non-life lines, including compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL).

One piece of good news was that the total number of policies outstanding in the non-life segment at the end of September 2009 (63.356mn) was up only 3.2% y-o-y. The implication is that, across most non-life lines, pricing has remained quite firm. However, the reverse was true in the life segment, where the total number of individual life contracts rose from 11.949mn at the end of September 2008 to 12.021mn at the end of September 2009. The number of group life contracts increased from 353,625 to 377,686. The obvious conclusion is that some life companies are chasing profitability rather than growth for its own sake. Of the 10 largest players in the life segment (PZU, ING, WARTA, Allianz, Eureko, ALICO, Aviva, Nordea, UNIQA and Generali/PPF), there was a surprising diversity of changes in premiums in the first nine months of 2009. WARTA (up 23%), ING (up 35%) and Allianz (up 47%) experienced strong gains in gross written premiums. In contrast, double-digit falls were experienced by UNIQA (down 16%), PZU (down 33%) and Aviva (down 65%).

Issues to Watch

PZU's Marketing Strategies

PZU is looking to halt the long-term decline in its market share by 2011. It hopes to do this by way of a number of pricing and marketing strategies, as well as by improving the levels of service it provides to its customers.

Contagion In Bond Markets

A key feature of 2009 was the rebound in investment income. In the event of volatility in bond markets in Central and Eastern Europe, it may be more difficult for Polish insurers to maintain levels of profitability in the coming year or so.

Pricing Pressures

As noted above, pricing appears to have remained reasonably firm across most lines in the non-life segment (and, indeed, for some operators in the life segment). Profitability could decline rapidly in 2010 in the event that a deterioration in investment income coincides with weaknesses in pricing.