This report differs from its predecessors in several respects. In our analysis of competitive conditions, we provide a much more comprehensive ranking of insurance companies in the major segments from the point of view of the organisation that is providing the data (in practice almost always the national insurance regulator or the national insurance trade association). In Poland, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in the first half of 2009 – in terms of Gross Written Premiums written - were PZU SA, STU ERGO Hestia SA and TUiR WARTA SA, whose market shares were 38.9%, 10.0% and 9.4% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in the first half of 2009 were PZU ?ycie SA, ING TUn? SA and TUn? WARTA SA, whose market shares were 28.1%, 11.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over time, we hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. We emphasise though, that a decline in share of Gross Written Premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.

In this report, we also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Poland, for instance, the largest non-life lines in 2008 were compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL), land vehicles voluntary insurance (CASCO) and fire and diverse risks. These accounted for 35%, 26% and 10%, respectively, of total non-life premiums. Over time, we should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to our forecasting process. Writing in December 2009, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. We have generally been able to use data that has been published over the course of 2009 to adjust our forecasts for the year as a whole. We have also extended the forecasts out to 2014. We are looking for total premiums in 2009 of VND21,743,254mn. This includes non-life premiums of VND11,757,081mn and life premiums of VND9,986,174mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be VND54,079,998mn, VND26,575,793mn and VND27,504,205mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise from .77% in 2009 to 1.08% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$6 to US$9. The proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Vietnam is 44.2.

This quarter, we include a discussion of developments within regional markets on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. Aside from Singapore, most of the markets of South East Asia represent small portions of the regional businesses of cross-border insurers in Asia Pacific. The individual markets of South East Asia, other than Singapore, typically represent a small portion of the regional business of the various multinational insurers who are active across the region. Nevertheless, it is significant that many of the larger cross-border groups commented favourably on the performance of their operations in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia through the first six to first nine months of 2009. Improving perceptions of risk on the part of domestic investors have boosted demand for long-term savings products. In many cases, it is the large multinationals that have benefited, at the expense of smaller local groups. Thanks to reasonably resilient domestic demand, non-life insurance has continued to develop, in some cases from low bases.