Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
Table of figures 3
THE FUTURE DECODED 4
INTRODUCTION: Beer, cider & FABs are a major component of the overall alcoholic drinks market 4
TREND: The overall alcoholic beverage market is defined by its maturity and the moderate consumption behaviors of consumers 4
Sales performance in the alcoholic beverages market highlights the contrast between the saturated, static markets of the West and the developing potential of key emerging markets 5
Trends in consumers' consumption occasions mirror the flat performance in sales volumes 8
Males remain the dominant gender in overall alcohol occasions, although female consumption is growing stronger 11
Alcohol consumption occasions decline with age as moderation behaviors rise and consumers' priorities shift 16
Moderation, driven by rising attentiveness to health issues, is increasingly characterizing many consumers' alcoholic beverage consumption behaviors 20
Moderation has also been influenced by economic circumstances, but consumers remain resistant to the concept of cutting back on alcohol for purely financial reasons 24
Alcohol abstainers: although a minority, those who never drink account for sizeable shares of LDA consumers 29
Key takeouts and implications: growth potential in the alcohol market will be centered on tapping new consumer groups and the sustenance of trading up behavior 34
TREND: The inherent popularity of beer is failing to sustain consumers' consumption levels 35
Sales in the beer, cider & FABs categories are showing a continuing decline 35
Beer occasions remain one of the key consumption occasions in the alcohol market but frequency is falling 39
Cider is a fringe category largely defined by its position in the UK alcohol market 41
Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) have elicited a mixed response from consumers globally 43
Gender stereotypes within the beer, cider and FABs categories remain potent 46
Beer is a heavily male centric category, although female occasions are rising proportionally in key markets 46
Cider occasions are less male-centric than beer, reflecting the product's greater cross-gender potential 50
FABs is well established as a female-friendly category, with occasions driven by women 53
Consumer age bias is apparent across the beer, cider and FABs categories 56
Beer draws its strength from popularity among younger consumers but has been pressured by alternatives 57
Cider has moved to establish itself as a younger category in its most significant markets, breaking with past, staid associations in consumers' minds 59
The success of FABs is firmly rooted in their appeal among young consumers 61
Key takeouts and implications: the beer, cider and FABs market is facing a challenging period, requiring a nuanced focus on the shifts in consumer preferences and channel dynamics 64
TREND: On and off-trade dynamics in the beer, cider & FABs market: consumers' off-trade consumption is increasingly driving the market 65
The shift in alcohol sales from the on-trade to the off-trade reflects a trend predating the global economic downturn 65
The economic climate is however influencing consumers' propensity to consume on-trade and also their product choices 71
Recent trends show increased motivation among consumers to consume off-trade 74
Time scarcity and related external pressures on alcohol consumption occasions adds impetus to the move to the off-trade 79
The frequency and location of on-trade consumption habits around the world underlines preferences for moderate relaxed drinking occasions 82
Consumers drink with greater frequency when at home than they do on-trade 87
Brand choice is being influenced by price both on and off-trade, although this is, perhaps surprisingly, more marked off-trade 91
The off-trade is the principal channel for volume sales in the beer, cider & FABs market 96
Beer occasions on-trade are threatened by their affordability relative to the off-trade 98
Cider is limited in its establishment on-trade outside of the pivotal UK market 102
National preferences and the relative popularity of FABs have an impact upon the strength of the on-trade channel 105
Key takeouts and implications: off-trade beer consumption is key to the market internationally, but the on-trade's value will remain as a showcase and value-added channel 108
INSIGHT: Changing consumer preferences in the beer, cider & FABs market: price and health concerns are competing with consumers' habitual and sensory preferences 109
Some consumers are shifting between categories based on price and value-for-money considerations, but habit and experiential attributes remain highly important 109
Beer remains the dominant alcoholic drink outside of meal occasions 115
The influence of health on alcohol choice: health remains a difficult proposition for the beer market but consumers are becoming more receptive 126
The popularity of lower alcohol versions of brands reflects both health awareness and the general trend for moderation 131
Beer benefits from strong comfort associations among consumers, particularly in a recession 135
Authenticity has grown as a respected attribute within the beer, cider & FABs market 136
Key takeouts and implications: the beer, cider and FABs market derives continued strength from its association with informality and relaxation, appreciated in difficult times 138
INSIGHT: Innovation trends in beer, cider & FABs: premium and health attributes dominate NPD activity in the market 139
Manufacturers have continued to focus on meeting the upscale/premiumization trend despite the economic crisis, although 2009 suggests the tide may be turning 140
Health-related claims permeate the top 20 product claims 144
The natural/organic trend has influenced beer releases in a number of ways but is now waning 147
Beer, cider & FABs manufacturers continue to push development in the female market although economic conditions and consumer uptake are leading some to reappraise their strategies 149
Extreme beer products have emerged to appeal to consumers' hedonism and grab headlines 150
Key takeouts and implications: tracking the key consumer mega-trends is essential to directing innovation in the beer, cider and FABs market 151
ACTION POINTS 153
Build a compelling case for brand loyalty in the off-trade 153
Keep faith in the on-trade's value as a brand showcase and target the moderate on-trade consumer 155
Be aware of the risks of discounting and promotions to post-recessionary sales and brand equity 156
Maintain investment in, and exploitation of opportunities within the healthy alcohol market 159
Target comfort-based and social occasions 160
Be ready for renewed trading up opportunities during the post-recessionary period 160
Maintain a strong focus on innovation and R&D during times of economic uncertainty 160
Start planning for the longer term by continually tracking Dutch consumers as an economic recovery begins to become a reality 161
APPENDIX 163
Methodology 163
Further reading and references 164
Ask the analyst 164
Datamonitor consulting 164
Disclaimer 165
List of Figures
Figure 1: Alcoholic beverages market value and growth, 15 countries, across Europe, North and South America, and Asia Pacific 6
Figure 2: Alcoholic beverages market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), by country, Europe, 2003-2013 7
Figure 3: Alcoholic beverages market value (US$ millions) and market volume (liters millions), Brazil and the US, 2003-2013 7
Figure 4: Alcoholic beverages market value (US$ millions) and market volume (liters millions) by country, Asia Pacific, 2003-2013 8
Figure 5: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 10
Figure 6: Number of LDA per capita alcoholic beverage occasions, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia, 2004-2014 11
Figure 7: Male dominance in expenditure on alcohol mirrors that seen in occasion numbers 13
Figure 8: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Europe, comparison by gender, 2009 13
Figure 9: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Europe, BY GENDER, 2004-2014 14
Figure 10: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), US & Brazil, comparison by gender, 2009 14
Figure 11: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), US & Brazil, BY GENDER, 2004-2014 15
Figure 12: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Asia Pacific, comparison by gender, 2009 15
Figure 13: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Asia Pacific, BY GENDER, 2004-2014 16
Figure 14: Number of alcoholic beverage consumption occasions (millions), by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the US, South America and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 18
Figure 15: Number of per capita alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the US, South America and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 19
Figure 16: Consumer Survey: the level of attention given to 'ensuring you do not drink too much alcohol in general', by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2008 19
Figure 17: Consumer Survey: How much attention do you give towards the following? Potential weight gain from drinking alcohol 21
Figure 18: In Europe, Italians are showing the highest overall commitment to consciously moderating their alcohol consumption 22
Figure 19: Over a quarter of US drinkers strongly agree that they are making an effort to moderate consumption 22
Figure 20: Asia Pacific consumers, compared to consumers globally, are less committed to moderating their alcohol intake despite relatively high levels of interest in restraint overall 23
Figure 21: Consumer Survey: Please indicate to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements: I make a conscious effort not to drink too much alcohol 24
Figure 22: Europeans are highly attentive to alcohol spend but its impact on overall consumption is limited 26
Figure 23: Brazilians and Americans show greater likelihood to cut consumption and are more attentive than Europeans, but a stark gap is still apparent 26
Figure 24: Asia Pacific exhibits a similar attentiveness/behavior gap in their alcohol consumption 27
Figure 25: Consumer Survey: How much attention do you give towards the following? The amount of money you spend on alcohol 28
Figure 26: Consumer Survey: In the past six months, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Cut down on the overall amount of alcohol you buy/consume 29
Figure 27: Rate of alcohol abstention (% of LDA population and number of abstainers, millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2009 32
Figure 28: Rate of alcohol abstention (% of LDA population), by gender, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2009 33
Figure 29: Rate of alcohol abstention (% of LDA population), by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2009 34
Figure 30: Beer, Cider, & FABs market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), by country, Europe, 2003-2013 38
Figure 31: Beer, Cider, & FABs market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), Brazil and the US, 2003-2013 38
Figure 32: Beer, Cider, & FABs market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), by country, Asia Pacific, 2003-2013 39
Figure 33: Number of beer consumption occasions (millions), Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 40
Figure 34: Per capita beer consumption occasions, Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 41
Figure 35: Number of cider consumption occasions (millions), Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 42
Figure 36: Per capita cider consumption occasions, Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 43
Figure 37: Number of FABs consumption occasions (millions), Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 45
Figure 38: Per capita FABs consumption occasions, Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 46
Figure 39: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, 2009 48
Figure 40: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by gender, Brazil and the US, 2009 48
Figure 41: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by gender, Asia Pacific, 2009 49
Figure 42: Number of beer consumption occasions (millions), by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 49
Figure 43: Percentage share of beer consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 50
Figure 44: Number of per capita cider consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 51
Figure 45: Number of cider consumption occasions (millions), by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 52
Figure 46: Percentage share of cider consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 53
Figure 47: Number of per capita FABs consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 54
Figure 48: Number of FABs consumption occasions (millions), by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 55
Figure 49: Percentage share of FABs consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 56
Figure 50: Number of beer consumption occasions (millions), by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 58
Figure 51: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 59
Figure 52: Number of cider consumption occasions (millions), by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 60
Figure 53: Number of per capita cider consumption occasions, by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 61
Figure 54: Number of FABs consumption occasions (millions), by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 63
Figure 55: Number of per capita FABs consumption occasions, by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 64
Figure 56: Overall alcoholic beverage market volume sales (liters millions), by on-trade versus off-trade, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2003-2008 67
Figure 57: Share of overall alcoholic beverage market volume sales (%), by on-trade versus off-trade, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2003-2008 68
Figure 58: Share of overall alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Europe, 2009 69
Figure 59: Share of overall alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Brazil and the US, 2009 69
Figure 60: Share of overall alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Asia Pacific, 2009 70
Figure 61: Number of on-trade alcoholic beverage consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 70
Figure 62: Number of off-trade alcoholic beverage consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 71
Figure 63: Europeans, especially the French, Germans and Italians, are showing a tendency to restrain their eating out in light of recessionary conditions 73
Figure 64: Americans and Brazilians are showing an above average propensity for cutting back on their eating out due to the downturn 73
Figure 65: South Koreans stand out in Asia Pacific through their significant cut backs in on-trade eating 74
Figure 66: Europeans are making a greater effort to drink more frequently at home than they are to change the frequency of their on-trade visits 76
Figure 67: Brazilians and Americans are notably contrasting in their behavior towards changing the balance and relative frequency of drinking both on and off-trade 76
Figure 68: The more developed markets of the Asia Pacific region have seen only a limited change in on and off-trade drinking behavior compared to the emerging markets 77
Figure 69: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Cut down on the number of times you drink in bars, restaurants, etc. 78
Figure 70: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Made a conscious effort to drink more frequently at home 79
Figure 71: Consumer Survey: In the last MONTH, on average how many times did you have a drink in a bar, restaurant, pub, etc? 81
Figure 72: Consumer Survey: In the last MONTH, on average how many times did you have a drink at home or in somebody else's home? 82
Figure 73: Europeans' propensity for alcohol consumption on-trade is particularly strongly tied to their restaurant-going 84
Figure 74: US consumers' moderate drinking patterns on-trade favor restaurants and local bars 85
Figure 75: Brazilian consumers' on-trade drinking is more frequent across most channels than their US or European peers 86
Figure 76: Asia Pacific consumers show a greater propensity for more frequent alcoholic beverage consumption in restaurants and local bars 87
Figure 77: European drinking patterns reflect a trend for regular off-trade social drinking and propensity for frequent weekly drinking at home 89
Figure 78: Half of US drinkers are prone to social drinking in others homes several times a month 89
Figure 79: Brazilians' show a high propensity for regular weekly alcohol consumption in the home 90
Figure 80: Asian consumers exhibit a much lower propensity for social drinking in the homes of others 90
Figure 81: UK and Spanish consumers show the most striking tendency to trade down in brand terms off-trade compared to on-trade 93
Figure 82: A quarter of Brazilians are switching to cheaper alcohol brands both on and off-trade 93
Figure 83: Australians have shown a particular tendency to purchase cheaper brands for off-trade consumption in recent months 94
Figure 84: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Buy cheaper brands of alcoholic drinks when drinking in bars, restaurants, etc. 95
Figure 85: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Buy cheaper brands of alcoholic drinks when drinking at-home 96
Figure 86: Overall beer, cider, & FABs market volume sales (liters millions), by on-trade versus off-trade, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2003-2008 97
Figure 87: Share of overall beer, cider, & FABs market volume sales (%), by on-trade versus off-trade, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2003-2008 98
Figure 88: The average price (US$) of a pint of lager in 2009, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific 99
Figure 89: Share of beer consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Europe, 2009 100
Figure 90: Share of beer consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Brazil and the US, 2009 100
Figure 91: Share of beer consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Asia Pacific, 2009 101
Figure 92: Number of on-trade beer consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 101
Figure 93: Number of off-trade beer consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 102
Figure 94: Share of cider consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Europe, 2009 103
Figure 95: Share of cider consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Brazil and the US, 2009 103
Figure 96: Share of cider consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Asia Pacific, 2009 104
Figure 97: Number of on-trade cider consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 104
Figure 98: Number of off-trade cider consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 105
Figure 99: Share of FABs consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Europe, 2009 106
Figure 100: Share of FABs consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Brazil and the US, 2009 106
Figure 101: Share of FABs consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Asia Pacific, 2009 107
Figure 102: Number of on-trade FABs consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 107
Figure 103: Number of off-trade FABs consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 108
Figure 104: Consumer Survey, factors influencing consumers' alcoholic beverage choices, 2008 111
Figure 105: Italians and Spanish consumers have shown a particular tendency to switch types of drink based on price 113
Figure 106: Consumers in the Americas are switching alcohol types based on price more than their global peers 113
Figure 107: Consumers across Asia Pacific are more likely to trade down in type of alcoholic drink than their peers globally 114
Figure 108: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Chosen cheaper type of drinks (e.g. beer instead of spirits) 115
Figure 109: Beer is most commonly consumed in relaxed, drink-only on-trade occasions 117
Figure 110: Cider remains a highly niche sector globally, associated with relaxed occasions 118
Figure 111: Flavored alcoholic beverages have diverse appeal by occasion across different geographies 119
Figure 112: Beer is achieving wider acceptance as an accompaniment to food in the home, although wine still dominates 120
Figure 113: Beer is the dominant global choice of drink in the home outside of meal occasions 121
Figure 114: When eating on-trade, beer is a distant second to wine in many countries, although there are interesting national/regional variations 122
Figure 115: Beer remains the unassailable traditional choice for relaxed on-trade drinking occasions without food 123
Figure 116: High energy drinking occasions are beer oriented, but see greater competition from spirits and wine in consumers' choices 124
Figure 117: Beer has achieved credibility as a dinner party choice in Asia, although it remains secondary to wine in most developed markets 125
Figure 118: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Chosen alcohol on the basis of how well it goes with food 126
Figure 119: Southern Europe and Russia stand in contrast to the rest of Europe in how much health influences alcoholic beverage choice 128
Figure 120: Health is a below average influence on US consumers' alcoholic beverage choice 129
Figure 121: Australian and Japanese consumers stand out regionally with their lower concern for health in their drinks choices 129
Figure 122: Consumer Survey: Please tell us how much influence the following factors have in your alcoholic beverage choice: Health 130
Figure 123: Body shape concerns, especially among women, have consequences for the beer market's ability to gain traction as healthy 131
Figure 124: Low-carbohydrate beers have resonated with health-conscious US consumers 133
Figure 125: The most mature European markets have seen relatively limited shifts in behavior favoring low-alcohol versions of well known brands 133
Figure 126: The contrast between Brazil and the US highlights the limited traction of health as a factor in alcoholic drinks purchases in mature markets compared to a greater degree of openness in emergent ones 134
Figure 127: Australia and Japan contrast the growing interest in lower alcohol brands in the Asian region's emerging markets and South Korea 134
Figure 128: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Opted for lower alcohol versions of favorite brands 135
Figure 129: Top 20 product claims within beer, cider & FABs releases, in 15 countries across Europe, Americas, and Asia Pacific 140
Figure 130: Number of upscale product releases, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2009 141
Figure 131: The 'democratization of luxury' is both an opportunity and a threat for luxury/premium alcoholic beverage brands 142
Figure 132: Experimentation with unusual flavor ingredients has been a characteristic associated with upscale differentiation 143
Figure 133: Beer mixers offer opportunities to incorporate value-added elements such as cross-branding, ethnic influences, and further new flavor concepts 144
Figure 134: Japanese alcohol-free "beers" show that potential still exists in the low or no alcohol segment despite the shift in emphasis to other health attributes 145
Figure 135: Number of low alcohol product releases, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2009 146
Figure 136: Number of low calorie product releases, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2009 146
Figure 137: Bud Light Golden Wheat represents an attempt to enhance the flavor credentials of healthier, lighter beer products 147
Figure 138: Number of natural product releases, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2009 148
Figure 139: Organic and natural ingredients rank low on consumers' list of influences on purchase choice for alcoholic drinks 148
Figure 140: Carlsberg/Baltika's Eve beer and Heineken's Charli cider represent examples of continued experimentation in the female-focused market 150
Figure 141: Extreme beers can court both controversy and represent superpremium values, tapping into irreverent recessionary escapism and/or consumer connoisseurship 151
Figure 142: Manufacturers and retailers looking to deliver value-for-money must in the provision of factors associated with the PPI, but while also offering consumers lower than expected prices 158
Figure 143: Datamonitor's Recession and Recovery portal will facilitate forward thinking planning for those leading companies that start planning for the longer-term 162