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United States Food and Drink Report Q3 2010
Market |
Food and Drink |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
United States |
Published |
14 July 2010 |
Number of Pages |
97 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest retail sales data in the US supports BMI's core view that the recovery in consumer demand in developed markets will be weak. US retail sales fell unexpectedly in May, with a 1.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) fall representing the largest decline since September 2009. The fall was unexpected, with analyst polls for Reuters predicting growth of 0.2%. Base effects mean that in both markets sales were ahead of their equivalent periods a year ago but these figures suggest that, as forecast by BMI, any recovery in demand will be weak and faltering, with reverberations from the global financial crisis expected to continue to weigh on demand for the rest of the year and into 2011.
Headline Industry Data
-2010 per capita food consumption = +1.7%; forecast to 2014 = +8.3%
-2010 alcoholic drink sales = +1.9%; forecast to 2014 = +9.5%
-2010 soft drink sales = +3% ; forecast to 2014 = +17%
-2010 mass grocery retail sales = +2.8%; forecast to 2014 = +12.9%
Key Macroeconomic Data
-2010 Real GDP growth = +2.8% (2009, -2.4%)
-2010 Consumer Price Index = +1.0% chg y-o-y (period average) (2009, +-0.35%)
-2010 Unemployment Rate = 10.4% (period average) (2009, 9.3%)
Key Company Trends And Developments
Private Labels Gaining Ground - The latest company trading updates suggest that the US market for private label products continues to grow at a greater rate than the overall food and drink market, but that the trend away from national brands has softened in recent quarters. US consumers have generally been slower to embrace private labels than their European counterparts, however, the global economic slowdown has given the sector a kick-start and most of the country's retailers have put a new emphasis on their private label ranges.
High Income Consumers Ready To Spend
A divergence in the performance of US grocery retailers over the last six months suggests that while consumer confidence among high-income shoppers is returning, for those on middle and low incomes, caution remains the dominant theme. This contrast can be attributed to two factors: firstly, middle- and low-income consumers have been impacted to a much greater degree by a surge in unemployment; secondly, grocery products reflect a larger proportion of spending for consumers on low and middle incomes, meaning that these parts of the population are more likely to look at this sector when they are cutting spending. This conclusion suggests that products and retailers targeting the higher end of the market may emerge more quickly from the downturn.
Key Risks to Outlook
Slowdown in China - Overly accommodative fiscal and monetary stimuli in China have led to an overheating that could result in a sharp withdrawal in 2011 which would put downwards pressure on US growth.
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