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Market |
Healthcare and Medical |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Argentina |
Published |
23 January 2009 |
Number of Pages |
87 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
In BMI‘s Q109 Business Environment Ratings for the 10 markets of the Americas, Argentina is ranked eighth overall, on a par with Venezuela. In terms of market size and potential, Argentina scores modestly overall, but better than a number of other Latin American markets. The pharmaceutical market grew by 15% in 2006 and by 12% in 2007, which are both sterling growth rates. However, this is also a reflection of the market pulling itself back from the collapse of the economy just a few years earlier. Growth will slow significantly in the next five years, due to the worsening economic outlook, with the market forecast to reach US$3.95bn in 2013, rising over 23% in US dollar terms, and over 65% in terms of local currency. These rates are lower than our previous forecasts.
In fact, in terms of its wider operating environment, the latest data coming out of Argentina suggest that the economy is in the midst of a slowdown. We are keeping our end-08 and end-09 real GDP forecasts at 6.0% (down from 8.7% in 2007) and 3.6% respectively, but caution that, given the pro-cyclical nature of economic policy, the risks lie to the downside. Although we are still forecasting robust growth for fullyear 2008, as the economy's momentum remains strong and government spending continues to be highly expansionary, the potential for a more acute slowdown in 2009 and beyond is high. Key motivators for this caution come from mounting political uncertainty and a deteriorating fiscal and inflation outlook. The rejection of the export tax hike in congress in July 2008 has meant that more taxes are likely to be levied in other areas of the economy (local newspaper reports suggest that income tax may be raised on earnings over ARS20,000 per month), which will further dampen the medium term growth outlook.
In the meantime, in August 2008, Argentina's Ministry of Health granted a major contract to state medicine producers in a bid to support local pharmaceutical production. A contract worth ARS37mn (US$12.2mn) has been granted to 10 state-owned factories for the production of six drugs, including several antibiotics, the diuretic hydrochlorothiazine and the analgesic aspirin. The government claims that state-production will reduce the cost of the medicines by an average of 48%. The drugs will be used by the government-sponsored Remediar programme, which offers a limited range of basic medicines to patients that lack other health insurance.
In the domestic market, the pressure on the regulator and general improvements in regulatory systems in other key Latin American markets will inevitably force tighter regulation and enforcement of bioequivalence rules in Argentina further down the line. Given the recent entry of Indian manufacturers - which have developed a production presence, albeit limited, in Argentina along with a far bigger footprint in Brazil - combined with down-scaling by multinationals, the market will become increasingly reliant on cheap bioequivalent generics in the future, which will threaten its values.
Healthcare and Medical Company Profiles contain up to date financial, strategic, operational, SWOT analysis and product information on the activities of thousands of healthcare and medical companies.
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