CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 7
Astellas: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
M&A helps reinforce focus on Rx pharmaceuticals 9
Cost containment and share buybacks drive investor returns post-merger 11
Flagship organ rejection franchise likely to exhibit strong defense against generic compeition 13
Lifecycle management and generic insulation vital in sustaining medium-term organ rejection revenues 13
Long-term focus on organ rejection underscored by continuing pipeline efforts 15
SWOT analysis 17
Strengths 17
Weaknesses 20
Opportunities 21
Threats 22
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 26
Product developments 26
Deals and alliances 28
Product deals 28
Technology deals 28
Company announcements 29
Future product milestones 29
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 30
Key findings 30
Background 31
Key corporate developments 31
M&A history 34
Merger of Yamanouchi and Fujisawa 34
Acquisiiton of Agensys 35
Current corporate structure 36
Prescription (Rx) pharmaceuticals 36
Other 36
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES 37
Key findings 37
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 38
Historical analysis 39
Forecast analysis 40
Product analysis 41
Product analysis, 2001-07 42
Growth drivers 43
Growth resistors 44
Product analysis, 2007-13 45
Growth drivers 46
Growth resistors 48
Therapy area analysis 49
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 50
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 51
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 52
Geographic analysis 53
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 54
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 56
Geographic focus, 2001-13 58
Launch/core/expiry analysis 59
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 59
Launch analysis, 2007-13 60
Core analysis, 2007-13 61
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 62
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 63
Molecule type analysis 64
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 65
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 65
Externalization analysis 66
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 67
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 69
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 71
Key findings 71
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2001-07 73
Financial statements, 2001-07 74
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 74
Balance sheet, 2001-07 75
Operating costs and profit analysis 77
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 78
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 79
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 80
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 82
Return on capital employed analysis 83
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 84
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 86
Market capitalization analysis 89
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 89
Total shareholder returns analysis, 2001-07 90
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 92
Key findings 92
Overview 93
Cardiovascular 94
Micardis 94
Overview 95
Sales forecast 97
Lipitor 100
Overview 101
Sales forecast 102
Kynapid 104
Overview 105
Sales forecast 106
Immunology and inflammation 109
Prograf/Advagraf 109
Overview 110
Sales forecast 112
Urology and gender-specific health 116
Vesicare 116
Overview 117
Sales forecast 118
Harnal 121
Overview 122
Sales forecast 123
Infectious diseases 125
Arbelic 125
Overview 126
Sales forecast 127
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 131
R&D pipeline 131
References 132
Abbreviations 133
Exchange rates 134
List of Tables
Table 1: Astellas - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Post-merger financial performance of Astellas ($m), 2005-07 12
Table 3: Astellas key product developments, 2008 26
Table 4: Astellas product deals and alliances, 2008 28
Table 5: Astellas technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 28
Table 6: Astellas company announcements, 2008 29
Table 7: Astellas future product milestones, 2009-10 29
Table 8: Astellas product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 42
Table 9: Astellas product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 45
Table 10: Astellas product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 50
Table 11: Astellas product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 51
Table 12: Astellas portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 54
Table 13: Astellas portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 56
Table 14: Astellas launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 60
Table 15: Astellas core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 61
Table 16: Astellas expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 62
Table 17: Astellas portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 65
Table 18: Astellas product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 65
Table 19: Astellas portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 67
Table 20: Astellas portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 69
Table 21: Total Astellas sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 73
Table 22: Astellas profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 74
Table 23: Astellas balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 75
Table 24: Astellas operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 78
Table 25: Astellas operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-07 79
Table 26: Astellas operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2007-13 80
Table 27: Astellas operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 82
Table 28: Astellas capital employed ($m), 2001-07 84
Table 29: Astellas EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 86
Table 30: Astellas EBIT pre-tax return/capital employed driver analysis (%), 2001-07 87
Table 31: Astellas market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 89
Table 32: Astellas total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 90
Table 33: Key products overview 93
Table 34: Micardis: overview 95
Table 35: Micardis HCT: overview 96
Table 36: Micardis: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 97
Table 37: Micardis HCT: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 97
Table 38: Lipitor: overview 101
Table 39: Lipitor: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 102
Table 40: Kynapid: overview 105
Table 41: Kynapid: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 106
Table 42: Prograf: overview 110
Table 43: Advagraf: overview 111
Table 44: Prograf: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 112
Table 45: Advagraf: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 112
Table 46: Vesicare: overview 117
Table 47: Vesicare: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 118
Table 48: Harnal: overview 122
Table 49: Harnal: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 123
Table 50: Arbelic: overview 126
Table 51: Arbelic: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 127
Table 52: Astellas's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 131
Table 53: Exchange rates, 2007 134
List of Figures
Figure 1: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 6
Figure 2: Astellas's financial performance ($m), 2001-13 7
Figure 3: Creation of a leading Japanese pharmaceutical player 9
Figure 4: Astellas set to overtake Takeda in Japan, sales ($m), 2007-13 11
Figure 5: Tacrolimus franchise sales ($m), 2007-13 14
Figure 6: Astellas SWOT analysis 17
Figure 7: Current corporate structure 36
Figure 8: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 39
Figure 9: Astellas key sales growth driver and resistors ($m), 2001-07 43
Figure 10: Astellas key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2007-13 46
Figure 11: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 49
Figure 12: Astellas prescription pharma sales by therapy area (% of total), 2001-13 52
Figure 13: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 53
Figure 14: Astellas growth drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 54
Figure 15: Astellas drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 56
Figure 16: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 58
Figure 17: Astellas launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 63
Figure 18: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 64
Figure 19: Astellas prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 66
Figure 20: Astellas growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 67
Figure 21: Astellas growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 69
Figure 22: Astellas operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 77
Figure 23: Astellas operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-13 81
Figure 24: Astellas return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 83
Figure 25: Return on capital employed formula 87
Figure 26: Astellas market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 90
Figure 27: Astellas total shareholder returns vs. S&P 500 ($m), 2001-07 91