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Moldova Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2009
Market |
Healthcare and Medical |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
|
Published |
26 February 2009 |
Number of Pages |
48 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The Republic of Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, meaning an estimated per capita healthcare spending of only US$140 in 2008. Previously part of the Soviet Union, Moldova inherited free-of-charge access to healthcare services following its independence in 1991, although the subsequent economic crisis resulted in the need for a major overhaul of the system. The high burden of out-of-pocket payments (both formal and informal) that developed during this time of transition and during subsequent periods of economic crisis is still evident, although the provision and financing were much improved introduction of compulsory health insurance in 2004.
Entitlement to healthcare is now based on contribution, rather than on citizenship, meaning an estimated coverage of 80% of the population. While the uninsured are also able to access a more restrictive package of services, insufficient public finances mean that much of pharmaceuticals are still covered out-ofpocket, and a substantial number of patients choose to go without medicines or necessary hospitalisations.
Nevertheless, retail sector price rises have been responsible for the 60% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in the value of the pharmacy market in H108, which reached almost US$50mn despite falling volumes.
While the forecast period is likely to witness further fall in pharmaceutical volumes, due to economic slowdown, the values are expected to reach US$389mn by the end of 2013, up from the figure of US$200 estimated for 2008. However, the expected appreciation of the leu in 2012 and 2013 will translate into artificially strong growth in US dollar terms during this period.
In terms of the wider operating environment, we forecast a marked slowdown in Moldovan GDP growth in 2009 (to just 1.6%, from 4.7% in the previous year), as the deterioration of the external economic climate weighs on export growth and consumer sentiment. Household consumption is expected to expand by only 2.0% in 2009, down from 4.5% in 2008, due to an anticipated slowdown (or even outright contraction) of remittance growth from Moldovans working in the European Union (EU). Nevertheless, we expect growth to begin recovering from 2010, and note that public consumption is likely to provide a degree of support to aggregate demand.
Key drivers of pharmaceutical growth will be the continuation of healthcare modernisation, supported by the European Union (EU) and other international agencies, combined with a gradual economic recovery and the need to treat substantial number of patients suffering from communicable diseases, such as tuberculosis. On the other hand, foreign investment in the country will remain dependent on wider political stability, as well as on the willingness of companies to branch out from the more established and larger neighbouring markets of Romania and Ukraine. Local producers of pharmaceuticals (overwhelmingly producers of generics) will continue to play a diminishing role in the market, especially as India and other Asian countries increase their share in the cost-conscious healthcare environment.
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