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Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2012

Uncompetitive local drugmakers in Nigeria can only survive with government intervention or investment. This support has come in the form of the Nigerian Pharmaceutical Development Fund (NPDF) and the World Health Organization (WHO)s efforts to help local drugmakers reach prequalification. The WHOs assistance to local manufacturers will improve the quality of medicines and will allow the companies to compete with foreign generic drugmakers, particularly those from India and China. Furthermore, if a company can reach prequalification, it will be able to sell medicines to the Global Fund, the biggest purchaser of antiretroviral (ARV) and anti-malarial drugs in Africa.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: NGN121.0bn (US$802mn) in 2010 to NGN139.3bn (US$917mn) in 2011; +15.1% in local currency terms and +14. 3% in US dollar terms.

- Healthcare: NGN1,921bn (US$12.73bn) in 2010 to NGN2,221bn (US$14.6bn) in 2011; +15.6% in local currency terms and +14.8% in US dollar terms.

- Medical devices: NGN24.45bn (US$162mn) in 2010 to NGN26.87bn (US$177mn) in 2011; +9.9% in local currency terms and +9.1% in US dollar terms.

Business Environment Rating

Nigerias composite pharmaceutical BER score rose from 35.7 in Q411 to 38.1 in Q112; however, with the addition of new countries, Nigerias place in the overall rankings fell to 25th. Nigerias scores almost in line with the regional average for Industry Rewards (40) and Country Rewards (60), but it scores very poorly for its Industry Risks (20) and Country Risks (40). If the country improves its Industry Risks score, which could happen by reducing its exposure to counterfeit drugs and improving access to healthcare, Nigeria will enhance its overall standing in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) BERs.

Key Trends And Developments

In August 2011, experts from the WHO arrived in Nigeria to audit and inspect three leading Nigerian pharmaceutical companies, Swiss Pharma, May & Baker (M&B) Nigeria and Evans Medical, with the objective of enhancing their protocols and standards so the companies could obtain WHO prequalification.

Economic View

Although agriculture and oil dominate the current makeup of Nigerias economy, other sectors - which are newer or more dynamic - are driving real GDP expansion. In Q211, while the oil and gas sector constituted 38.7% of GDP by output at current prices, much of this was attributable to the rapid increase in oil prices in recent years. Holding oil prices constant at 1990 levels, over the past two decades the oil and gas industry has fallen as a share of GDP from 34% to about 15%. This is not to say that productivity has not increased (oil production increased from 1.8mn to 2.5mn barrels per day over that period), but the non-oil sector has significantly outperformed the oil sector in real terms. Oil production improved by an average of 1.7% over the past twenty years, compared to overall real GDP economic expansion which has averaged 5.6% over that time period.

Political View

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan revealed that security issues following recent bombings by Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram are having an adverse impact on foreign investment in the African nation. The Islamist sect has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks, including the bombing of the UN headquarters, which claimed 23 lives. The president gave his assurance that the situation will be brought under control. Boko Haram is responsible for almost daily shootings and attacks in the remote north east and has become the biggest security problem in the country.

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