South Africa Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010

Executive Summary ..................................6
SWOT Analysis..........................................8
South Africa Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT ...................... 8
South Africa Political SWOT ....................... 9
South Africa Economic SWOT ..................... 9
South Africa Business Environment SWOT................................................... 10
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings .....................................11
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q110 ............................... 11
Limits to Potential Returns ........................ 12
Risks to Realisation of Returns .................. 12
South Africa – Market Summary.............14
Regulatory Regime..................................15
Table: South Africa Drug Classification System (Section 22A Of Medicines And Related Substance Act 101 Of 1965)...................................... 15
Recent Regulatory Developments .............. 16
Table: Proposed Scope Of The South African Health Products Regulatory Authority...................................... 16
Pharmaceutical Advertising....................... 18
Intellectual Property Environment............. 18
Recent IP Developments ............................ 19
Counterfeit Activity .................................... 20
Pricing System........................................... 20
Price Increases .......................................... 22
Recent Pricing Developments .................... 22
Reimbursement System .............................. 24
Industry Developments...........................26
Epidemiology............................................. 26
HIV/AIDS................................................... 26
Tuberculosis............................................... 28
Healthcare Sector ...................................... 29
Recent Healthcare Sector Developments ...................................................... 30
Medical Tourism........................................ 31
Private Healthcare Regulation .................. 32
National Health Reference Price List ........ 33
Health Insurance ....................................... 34
Government Health Insurance ................... 35
ARV Manufacturing and Government Tenders ............................................. 36
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments........ 39
Retail Pharmacy Sector ............................. 40
Research and Development Sector............. 41
Recent R&D Activities ............................... 43
Vaccines..................................................... 44
Traditional African Medicine..................... 45
Medical Devices......................................... 46
Table: South African Customs Classification Of Medical Devices ................ 47
Regional Developments in Medical Devices Sector ...................................... 48
Table: Aims Of PEPFAR-BD Partnership .................................................... 48
Industry Forecast Scenario .....................50
Overall Market Forecast............................ 50
Key Growth Factors – Industry.................. 52
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic.....................................................54
Table: South Africa – Economic Activity, 2005-2013 ................................... 56
Prescription Drug Market Forecast........... 57
Patented Drug Market Forecast ................ 58
Generic Drug Market Forecast.................. 59
OTC Drug Market Forecast....................... 60
Medical Device Market Forecast............... 62
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts............... 63
Other Healthcare Data .............................. 65
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario....... 65
Competitive Landscape..........................67
Table: Private Market Size for Selected Products in South Africa* (2007).... 67
Company Profiles....................................68
Leading Foreign Companies........................... 68
Sanofi-Aventis............................................ 68
Pfizer ......................................................... 70
Roche......................................................... 72
Ranbaxy ..................................................... 74
GlaxoSmithKline........................................ 76
Merck & Co ............................................... 79
Leading Indigenous Manufacturers ................ 81
Aspen Pharmacare..................................... 81
Adcock Ingram........................................... 84
Enaleni Pharmaceuticals (Cipla-Medpro).................................................... 87
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data ..............................89
Section 1: Population................................. 89
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................................................. 89
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ................................................ 90
Section 2: Education and Healthcare ........ 90
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .................... 90
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030.............. 90
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power ........................................... 91
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006................................................... 91
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ......................................... 91
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012................................................... 92
BMI Methodology ....................................93
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts .............................. 93
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology ........................... 94
Ratings Overview....................................... 94
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ............................ 95
Weighting................................................... 96
Table: Weighting Of Components.............. 96
Sources ........ 96
Forecast Tables .......................................97