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Brazil Metals Report Q3 2010
Market |
Industrial |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Brazil |
Published |
21 July 2010 |
Number of Pages |
67 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The Brazilian steel industry has made a rapid turnaround and is set to sustain growth as capacity expands, but the country could cease to be self-sufficient in aluminium unless energy prices fall sufficiently enough to attract investment in new primary aluminium smelting capacity.
Brazilian metals industries are recovering at a fast pace due to the rapid rebound of the domestic economy. In the first five months of 2010, crude steel output rose 56.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 13.5mn tonnes, while rolled steel production grew 64.5% y-o-y to 10.8mn tonnes. Production growth was sustained throughout the period, indicating a long-lasting strong recovery. In May 2010, Brazilian crude steel output was up 5.5% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 50.8% y-o-y to 2.9mn tonnes while rolled production grew 5.2% m-o-m and 42.4% y-o-y to 2.3mn tonnes. The domestic market has supported growth in the Brazilian steel industry, with sales of 8.8mn tonnes in the January-May period, up 57.5% yo- y. Apparent consumption of steel was 11mn tonnes, up 70.5% y-o-y. Export growth was more subdued and largely due to low base effects rather than a return to trend growth. Over the first five months, exports totaled 3.5mn tonnes valued at US$2bn, a 28.9% increase in volume and 21.5% in value. Meanwhile, imports soared 149.1% to 2.3mn tonnes, helping to narrow the country steel trade surplus. We forecast crude output reaching 33.7mn tonnes in 2010, up 27.1%, while hot rolled output should climb 25.0% to 23.3mn tonnes.
Interest in the Brazilian steel industry has surged as the economy has recovered. In June 2010, the ThyssenKrupp CSA Siderúrgica do Atlântico (26.9% Vale, 73.1% ThyssenKrupp) steel mill at Santa Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, was inaugurated. It has a production capacity of 5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of high quality low cost slabs. The partners have indicated that slab output could be expanded to 6mn tpa in the future. In June 2010,the state government of Bahia announced that South American Metals, an association between the Brazilian group Votorantim and Chinese companies Honbridge and Xin Wen Mining Holdings Group, would build a US$2bn steel plant in the state with capacities including 7mn tpa of iron pellets. In May 2010, ArcelorMittal announced plans to invest US$1.2bn in Brazilian steel operations, including at its Joao Monlevade facility, thereby increasing production capacity to 2.4mn tpa by mid-2012. In April 2010, it was reported that Chinese steelmaker Wuhan Iron and Steel Co (WISCO) and Batista EBX Investment, owned by Brazilian industrialist Eike Battista, signed a joint venture (JV) deal worth up to US$5bn to establish a 5mn tpa steel mill at the Acu Port complex in Rio de Janeiro. The steel mill, which will serve Brazil’s automotive, shipbuilding and oil industries, as well as serving the Chinese market, is expected to be put into production within three years.
While steel production strengthened, primary aluminium production remained stagnant. The Associação Brasileira do Alumíni (Brazilian Aluminium Association, Abal) reported May monthly primary production of 130,900 tonnes, an increase of 1.4% y-o-y. For the first five months of 2010, primary aluminium output was 634,600 tonnes, down 1.6% y-o-y. The situation was exacerbated by the closure of the Valesul smelter, as well as significant reductions in output at Novelis’s Aratu smelter and Albras’s operations. However, these declines were mostly offset by Alcoa’s 23.1% increase in output at its Poços de Caldas smelter and a smaller 1.2% increase at its São Luís plant. The poor performance in the Brazilian aluminium industry contrasts with the 24% y-o-y rise in consumption of aluminium sheets, foil, extruded products and wires and cables.
In the aluminium industry, there are growing concerns that the country could become a net importer of aluminium by 2014, when consumption is likely to exceed installed capacity of 1.6mn tpa. ABAL forecasts that domestic consumption will rise 21% in 2010 to 1.2mn tonnes with imports set to rise 47% to 236,900 tonnes and exports declining 19.3% to 743,200 tonnes. Even at rates of consumption growth half the level expected in 2010 over the following four years, the country will become an importer of aluminium and with consumption expected to rise to 2mn tonnes by 2018 there is a pressing need for more smelter capacity. Increased recycling can only mitigate the problem, not solve it due to the rates of demand growth. In order to address the problem, the government will need to respond to companies’ demands for a reduction in energy costs and the tax burden to make new investments feasible. Primary aluminium producers complain that energy supply is the biggest challenge, with costs far higher than in other countries.
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