Disruptive Technology in Consumer Electronics
Executive summary 8
Anticipating disruption 8
Disruptive trends 9
Enablers of disruption 10
Technology areas facing disruption 11
Chapter 1 Introduction and scope of report 14
Introduction 14
Who is this report for? 15
Chapter 2 Anticipating disruption 18
Summary 18
Introduction 19
What is a disruptive technology? 19
Examples of disruptive technologies 19
Defining disruptive patterns 21
The evolution of a disruptive technology 22
Characteristics of a disruptive technology 23
Drivers and inhibitors of disruption 26
Intrinsic and extrinsic factors 28
Assessing the ‘tipping point’ for disruption 30
Shifting consumer behavior and media consumption patterns 32
Attitudes to work-life balance 32
Growing impact of the Internet 34
Embracing technology and connectivity 35
Changing media consumption habits 37
The ‘mobile lifestyle’ 38
Cost of technology 39
Technology performance 40
Enablers of disruption 41
Conclusions 43
Chapter 3 Disruptive trends 46
Summary 46
Introduction 47
Disruptive trends 47
Consumption patterns: Time and location-shifting 47
Trend towards customization 49
Trend towards mobility and mobile technology 53
Trend towards social networking 55
Growth of social networks 56
Types of social networking sites 60
Trend towards cloud computing 60
Technology business models 63
The concept of ‘good enough’ 63
Best-in-class technology 65
Conclusions 67
Chapter 4 Enablers of disruption 70
Summary 70
Introduction 71
Enablers of disruption 72
Content delivery models 72
New ‘broadcasting’ models 76
Mobile TV 77
Commoditization of older technologies 78
Broadband access and data transfer speeds 80
Conclusions 84
Chapter 5 Technology areas facing disruption 86
Summary 86
Introduction 87
Home entertainment 88
Digital video recorders 88
Internet radio and music streaming 91
Internet TV 94
Three-dimensional (3D) TV and Internet 96
3DTV 96
3D Internet 99
Portable technology 101
Netbooks / mobile internet 101
Mobile applications 103
Mobile gaming 105
Flash storage 107
Ethical technologies 109
‘Green gadgets’ 109
Natural user interfaces 113
Gaming 113
Multi-touch screens 115
Index 119
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: The evolution of a disruptive technology 23
Figure 2.2: Characteristics of an early-stage disruptive technology 24
Figure 2.3: Simple checklist for assessing potentially disruptive technology 25
Figure 2.4: Examples of drivers and inhibitors of disruption 27
Figure 2.5: Interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruption 29
Figure 2.6: Assessing the ‘tipping point’ for disruption in consumer technology 30
Figure 2.7: Average time spent working and on the Internet per person, per day (by country, 2012) 33
Figure 2.8: Connective technology drivers and inhibitors 36
Figure 2.9: Average time spent consuming media per day, hours (by country, 2002-2012) 38
Figure 3.10: Apple App Store downloads by category 51
Figure 3.11: Global mobile subscribers and penetration (bn, %), 2004-2008 54
Figure 3.12: Global iPod sales and units sold, 2006-2008 55
Figure 3.13: Global social networking revenue ($m), 2006-2012 57
Figure 3.14: Global social networking memberships, 2006-2012 59
Figure 4.15: Examples of disruption enablers 72
Figure 4.16: Six steps of commoditization 79
Figure 4.17: Average Internet connection speed by country, 2009 83
Figure 5.18: DVR household growth by region (m), 2007-2013 89
Figure 5.19: Global IPTV subscribers, 2009-2013 (m) 95
Figure 5.20: Global 3DTV market size, 2010-2015 ($bn) 97
Figure 5.21: Global netbook market size, 2008-2012 (millions of units shipped) 102
Figure 5.22: Global mobile gaming market size ($bn), 2003-2013 105
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Examples of disruptive technologies 20
Table 2.2: Intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruptive technologies 28
Table 2.3: Average time spent working and on the Internet per day (2012) 34
Table 2.4: Internet users and total % of population, by continent, 2008 35
Table 2.5: Average time spent consuming media per day, hours (by country, 2002-2012) 37
Table 3.6: Global mobile subscribers and penetration (bn, %), 2004-2008 54
Table 3.7: Global social networking revenue ($m), 2006-2012 57
Table 3.8: Global social networking memberships, 2006-2012 59
Table 4.9: Internet speeds available in Europe, 2009 80
Table 4.10: Internet speeds available in the Americas, 2009 81
Table 4.11: Internet speeds available in the Middle East, 2009 81
Table 4.12: Internet speeds available in Asia Pacific, 2009 82
Table 5.13: DVR household growth by region (m), 2007-2013 88