Mining giant BHP Billiton reportedly came forward as a potential bidder for Queensland Rail’s coal freight business QR National. The move highlights the growing trend of mining companies taking greater control over their supply chain to stabilise transport costs. BHP was reportedly looking at ways to improve the supply to and from the company’s Mount Arthur mine in New South Wales (NSW). It has even considered building its own railway. The state of Queensland had announced plans to sell off much of its rail freight business that has been valued at AUD7bn (US$6.4bn).

The company is planning an initial public offering (IPO) for the end of 2010, which will see as many as 75% of shares sold to the private sector. BHP is one of a number of mining companies that uses Queensland Rail to ship coal from its Hunter Valley operations in NSW to the Port of Newcastle. Like many of its rivals, increasing competition for space on the network and disruptions of supply have led the company to try and acquire freight transport assets, in order to take greater control over its supply chain.

Relative to our last report, we have maintained our short-term outlook for the Australian economy, although we have become more bullish for 2011 and 2012. After GDP growth of 0.3% in 2009, we are predicting 1.9% expansion in 2010 (no change). For 2011, however, we see the pace picking up to 2.9% (1.7% previously) and to 3.0% in 2012 (was 2.3%). For the 2010-2014 five-year forecast period, we expect annual growth to come in at an average 3.0%, which is a significantly higher than the 2.4% of the preceding five-year period of 2005-2009. In other words, with adverse trends in the global economy, Australian growth will remain moderately strong.

After a tough year in 2009, we expect commodity exports will lead to a recovery in demand for bulk shipping. Underlying demand for freight will remain sound. We expect overall freight carried, measured in million tonne kilometres (mntkm) across all modes, to grow by an annual average 5.8% over 2010-2014. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications (T&C) GDP rose 0.3% in 2008, on a par with GDP. For 2010-2014, we expect the T&C sector, measured in value terms, to grow in line with the wider economy. Both should achieve average annual growth of 3.0%. The total value of T&C GDP will rise to US$72.4bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 5.7% of Australia’s GDP.

In advanced economies, freight transport tends to lag behind or grow at roughly the same pace as the economy as a whole. In Australia, however, there is continuing upside potential in the freight sector. This reflects the size of the country’s infrastructure development opportunities and the strong potential for continuing growth of mineral exports. Airfreight, affected by the current downturn in the global market, will see 4.5% average annual growth in freight carried. We expect rail freight to grow by 3.8% per annum, with strong mining exports and infrastructure development coming into play after the current adverse international conditions improve. Road haulage freight carried will achieve average annual growth of 3.6%, a figure that takes account of a fairly slow 2009-2010. Sea freight, coming out of the current recession, will grow by an average of 8.6% per annum over the forecast period.