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Australia Freight Transport Report Q2
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Australia |
Published |
25 March 2009 |
Number of Pages |
56 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The government of Australia unveiled a stimulus plan aiming to create new jobs and boost the country’s productivity by bringing forward investments in economic and social infrastructure. Australia has the advantage of a budget surplus, sustained by half a decade of rising demand for natural resources (Australia’s main export) from Asian economies. According to the announced plan, AUD4.7bn (US$3.12bn) will be spent on rail, road and R&D programmes, with the most of the investments taking place over an 18-month period. These are investments that were due to take place in the coming years and the government is accelerating their implementation. The Australian Rail Track Corporation will receive AUD1.2bn (US$795mn), largely for upgrade works on the existing rail network. Half of the railway funds (AUD580mn) will be channelled into projects on rail lines from the Hunter Valley coal mines to Australia’s main coal export port in Newcastle. For the roads, the government has earmarked AUD711mn (US$472mn), mainly for upgrades to existing networks, including four projects in New South Wales, three in Queensland, and four in Victoria. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has said that these spending initiatives will create 32,000 jobs in the country.
Despite a number of positive fundamentals, BMI nevertheless expects the global economic slowdown to have an impact on the Australian freight sector, with demand for some of the country’s key mineral and agricultural exports easing back, and the pressure on its road, rail, and port systems reducing during the course of 2009. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 2.8% in 2008, ahead of overall GDP. For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole by a small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.8%, versus 2.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$68.7bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 5.7% of Australia’s GDP.
In advanced economies, freight transport tends to grow at roughly the same pace as the economy as a whole. In Australia, however, we believe there is continuing upside potential in the freight sector, reflecting the size of the country’s infrastructure development opportunities and the strong potential for the continuing growth of mineral exports. Airfreight, affected by the current downturn in the global market, will see 3.6% average annual growth in freight carried. We now expect rail freight to grow by 2.8% per annum, with strong mining exports and infrastructure development coming into play after the current adverse international conditions improve. Road haulage freight carried will achieve average annual growth of 3.2%, a figure which takes account of a fairly slow 2009 and 2010.
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