Belgium Freight Transport Report Q2 2009

The Port of Antwerp, one of the Europe's largest, registered a throughput increase of 4% year-on-year (yo- y) to 190mn tonnes in 2008. The port recorded a rise of 7.7% y-o-y in the shipment of containerised freight to 102mn tonnes in the same period. The port also reported container volumes of over 8.6mn twenty-feet equivalent units (TEUs), up 6% y-o-y in 2008. Belgium's geographical location allows it to play a multimodal hub role, located close to the major French and German economies and with Antwerp as a significant north European port. In 2004, Antwerp Port handled 135.5mn tonnes of goods, making it Europe's second-largest port. It ranks among the top 10 ports in the world. The latest figures show it was ranked number 13 worldwide in terms of container throughput. The port’s business development manager, Annelies De Jongh, was recently quoted by London-based trade publication Lloyd’s List saying it was focusing on capturing a greater share of Chinese box traffic into Europe once a recovery begins to make itself felt: ‘We are looking beyond the crisis,’ she said. The port had sent trade missions to the Yangtze and Pearl River regions of China in 2008. ‘We want to move more Chinese cargo and so we want to raise our visibility in that market and have more recognition,’ said De Jongh, adding, however, that Antwerp’s traditional trade routs to North and South America and Africa would not be neglected.

In our latest Belgium Freight Transport Report, however the overriding story is about the impact of the recession on the freight sector. We are now expecting Belgian GDP to fall by 2.3% in 2009, and for zero growth in 2010. As a result, average annual GDP growth across the 2009-2013 five-year forecast period will be only 0.7%. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured in million tonnes-km (mntkm), to be 0.7% during the forecast period, on a par with the economy as a whole.

Despite the poor market conditions, this rate will be supported by greater infrastructure investment.

Although we are relatively confident of its resilience, the risks to the freight sector do lie on the downside, particularly because of the intensity of the European and global recession.

For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the value of activity in the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 1.1%, versus 0.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$19bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 6.8% of Belgium’s GDP.

Our overall forecast for freight carried in Belgium is for low growth based on a mature industry, good infrastructure, a reduced economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign trade. We see the best performing sector to be airfreight, which – with annual average growth of 1.0% – will come through another period of relative turbulence in the sector caused by a new peak in energy costs. As a smaller European carrier, SN Brussels Airlines looks like being absorbed by Lufthansa in the next round of regional consolidation, but this will not necessarily be negative for airfreight volume growth, and could conceivably boost it further. Rail freight and pipeline throughput are both expected to grow by an annual average of 0.8%, just ahead of GDP expansion – this is due to new investment in infrastructure. We see road freight broadly in line with GDP, with an average annual growth of 0.7%, reflecting the impact of the recession on freight demand. Sea freight will grow by an annual average of 0.7%, also in line with the economy. Inland water transport will bring up the rear, with growth of 0.4% per annum.