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Belgium Freight Transport Report Q2 2010
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Belgium |
Published |
9 March 2010 |
Number of Pages |
45 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Two of Europe’s rail freight giants formed a partnership in December to establish a joint company, which will offer a more efficient cross border service between Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Germany’s DB Schenker Rail and Belgium’s SNCB Logistics (SNCB) have joined forces to form the Corridor Operations Belgium Rail (COBRA). COBRA trains will operate across the borders of Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. In a press release, SNCB’s CEO Marc Descheemaeker stated: ‘The conclusion of the electrification work in this West-East corridor smoothed the way for SNCB to optimise transport flows. Our exceptional geographical position and our ambition to develop the freight activities in Belgium and Europe, force us to look for reliable international partners.’ COBRA’s offices are to be based in Brussels and its team will be made up of a balance of managers from SNCB and DB Schenker Rail. However, the COBRA venture is, at the moment, still subject to the approval of the EU anti-trust authority. We believe that the establishment of COBRA will allow for a more seamless transportation of rail freight across borders. We note a developing trend between rail freight operators from neighbouring countries to join up on cross border transportation.
We now estimate GDP to have fallen by 3.2% in 2009 (less steeply than the 3.7% contraction we had earlier projected), and for there to be zero growth in 2010 (vs. -0.1% earlier). As a result, average annual GDP growth across the new 2010-2014 five-year forecast period will be 1.7% consistent with a rather slow emergence from the recession. This is nevertheless a small improvement compared with the average 1.1% annual growth rate in 2005-2009. The effect on our freight traffic forecasts for the period as a whole, compared with the preceding one, is therefore moderately positive. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured in mntkm to be 1.0% during the forecast period, lagging the economy as a whole. Despite the poor market conditions, this overall rate will be supported by greater infrastructure investment. Although we are relatively confident of its resilience, the risks to the freight sector do lie on the downside, particularly because of the intensity of the European and global recession.
According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP will fell by 2.8% in 2009, 0.4pps ahead of GDP, which will have contracted more steeply, by 3.2%. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.0% in value terms, versus 1.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$31.7bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 6.8% of Belgium’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 309,000 people, or 7.7% of the labour force, in 2009. We expect that figure to stay virtually constant, at around 308,000 by 2014.
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