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Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q2 2009
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Netherlands |
Published |
21 May 2009 |
Number of Pages |
46 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Dutch gas transport company Gasunie said in March that it would join the consortium considering building the Skanled gas pipeline, designed to pump Norwegian gas to Sweden, Denmark, and potentially onward to Poland. Reuters quoted Gasunie CEO Marcel Kramer as saying: ‘Skanled’s potential to enhance the diversity of supply in the North European region made us decide to join in this phase.’ A final decision on whether to proceed with Skanled was expected before the end of 2009, with some analysts saying the European and global recession had raised question marks over its commercial viability. Gasunie had replaced Swedegas and partly replaced Goteborg Energi within the eight-strong Skanled consortium. It has a strong position in the gas market in northern Germany and its home market of the Netherlands, with connections to Norwegian and Russian gas supplies as well as to the Danish, German, British, and Belgian markets.
Overall, and bearing in mind the major impact of the current recession, the report concludes in our latest Netherlands Freight Transport Report that freight traffic across all modes will rise by an annual average of 0.5% in the 2009-2013 forecast period. This will be on a par with the wider economy and down from 2.3% in the preceding five years. Slower economic growth is the key driver of the slowdown in the freight sector. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 2.6% in 2008, 0.7 of a percentage point ahead of GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$71bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 9.0% of the Netherlands’ GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 819,000 people, or 6.1% of the labour force, in 2007. We see that figure staying virtually constant at around 817,000 by 2013.
Our overall forecast for freight carried in the Netherlands is for it to be on a par with the wider economy based on a mature industry, good infrastructure, a slower economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign trade. We expect the best performing sector to be airfreight, which, with annual average growth of 0.9%, will come through another period of relative turbulence in the sector, caused by the European-wide recession. We believe Dutch aviation and the Air France-KLM alliance in particular, will ride out the storm. It will be followed by rail freight, where we are forecasting growth of 0.6% per annum, with resilience coming from recent investments – in particular the opening of a new freight line to Germany. Pipeline freight will grow by 0.5% throughout the forecast period, followed by road haulage and sea freight at 0.5% each. Inland water transport will bring up the rear, with growth of 0.2% per annum.
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