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Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q2 2010
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Netherlands |
Published |
3 March 2010 |
Number of Pages |
50 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
An increase in the shipment of oil products to the Port of Amsterdam, made up for a dramatic fall in its container traffic in 2009, ensuring that total cargo for the port only fell by 3%, according to a story in the Journal of Commerce (JOC) in January. Dry bulk transhipment at the Port of Amsterdam fell by 13% to 31mn tonnes in 2009, with the shipment of agricultural products down 16% to 2mn tonnes, and coal shipment falling by 16% to 14m tonnes. Container traffic was even worse hit, declining by more than 50% to 200,000 TEUs, down from 435,129 TEUs in 2008. The rapid decline was a result of losing two deep-sea liner services to the rival Port of Rotterdam. However, with the total shipment of liquid bulk increasing in 2009, by 16% to 39mn tonnes, and the shipment of oil products surging by 15% to 35m tonnes, Amsterdam only suffered a total loss of 3% in cargo volume for the year. In comparison, Amsterdam’s northwest European rivals were more adversely affected by the global economic recession and saw considerably larger falls in transhipment volumes for 2009. Rotterdam registered a fall of 8.5%, while Antwerp experienced a decline of 16.7%.
We continue to estimate that the Dutch economy contracted by 4.9% in 2009 and will register marginal growth of 0.3% in 2010, recovering very gradually to 1.9% growth in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012. We now expect annual GDP growth across the new 2010-2014 five-year forecast period to average 1.9%. This will be an improvement on the 1.2% achieved in 2005-2009. The effect on our freight traffic forecasts for the period as a whole, compared with the preceding one, is therefore positive, reflecting the country’s emergence from the current recession. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured in mntkm, of 1.7% during the forecast period of 2010-2014, lagging behind the wider economy but up from 0.8% in the preceding five years. Emergence from recession will be the key driver of the behaviour of the freight sector.
According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP contracted by 4.2% in 2009, 0.7 of a percentage point less severely than overall GDP. For the 2010-2014 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to outpace the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.4% in value terms, versus 1.9% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$81bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 9% of the Netherlands’ GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 817,000 people, or 6.1% of the labour force, in 2009. We see that figure easing down to around 813,000 by 2014.
Our overall forecast for freight carried in the Netherlands is for it to be broadly on a par with the wider economy based on a mature industry, good infrastructure, a moderate economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign trade. We expect the best performing sector to be airfreight, which, with annual average growth of 2.5%, will come through another period of relative turbulence in the sector, caused by the European-wide recession. We believe Dutch aviation and the Air France-KLM alliance in particular, will ride out the storm. It will be followed by rail freight, where we are forecasting growth of 2.3% per annum, with resilience coming from recent investments – in particular the opening of a new freight line to Germany. Pipeline freight will grow by 2.0% throughout the forecast period, with road haulage just behind at 1.9%. We think sea freight will be hardest hit by the current recession, with growth down to an average of 1.6%. Inland water transport will also experience low growth of 1.0% per annum.
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