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Poland Freight Transport Report Q2 2009
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Poland |
Published |
21 May 2009 |
Number of Pages |
59 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
In mid-March 2009, Poland was reported to be making concessions in negotiations to restore normal gas supplies from Russia. Russian gas supplies to Poland had fallen below contractual levels since the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute at the beginning of the year. In a bid to restore normal supplies, Polish officials said they were prepared to renegotiate the terms of a 1993 bilateral agreement on gas transit.
Reuters news agency said the Warsaw government would have preferred for the issues to be resolved on a company-to-company basis between its dominant gas distributor, Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), and Russia’s state monopoly supplier, Gazprom. However, it had accepted that the matter of gas transit would have to be dealt with on a government-to-government basis. Reuters quoted Poland’s deputy economy minister, Marcin Korolec, who said after a meeting of a bilateral commission that ‘the protocol includes a point which says that Poland and the Russian Federation pledge to start talks focusing on an intergovernmental gas supply agreement as soon as possible’. In the first week of March, PGNiG said it was receiving only 78% of contracted gas from Russia through the Yamal pipeline that enters the country via Belarus. Poland imports around 66% of its total gas consumption.
In our newly released Poland Freight Transport Report, the report concludes that oil and gas pipeline throughput will grow by an average of 2.2% per annum in 2009-2013, reflecting a sharp drop in Russian throughput in 2009. There will be something of a transition period as Poland seeks to diversify its oil and gas supplies away from excessive dependence on Russia. Various factors underpin our forecast. While there is a high degree of volatility in what could be called ‘pipeline geopolitics’, we think that it remains in Warsaw’s long-term interest to strike a deal with Russia, on the one hand, while diversifying pragmatically on the other. Poland’s own economy is expected to grow at an average of 2.3% a year over the next five years, providing a base line of energy demand that will also contribute to pipeline usage.
Our overall forecast for freight carried in Poland has been affected by the current recession. The transport sector also has to play catch-up, given infrastructure limitations in road and rail. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured in million tonne km (mntkm), of 3.3% during the forecast period of 2009-2013. We see the best performers sector being airfreight and sea cargo, with annual average growth of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. Positive fundamentals for airfreight have been somewhat overshadowed by the impact of high fuel prices and the subsequent downturn in the global aviation cycle. Plans to privatise Poland’s troubled national carrier, LOT Polish Airlines, may eventually attract new investment. In maritime freight we are forecasting that new investment in Gdansk port will eventually feed through. Road haulage will grow by 3.3% per annum. Here, finally, rail freight will grow by an annual average of 2.7%, as the processes of reform and deregulation gradually begin to take hold.
Poland has a composite score of 64.8 (out of a theoretical maximum of 100) in our freight rating. The country scores well on long-term political and economic risk, and on the regulatory and competitive environment. On the other hand, freight transport growth and infrastructure are areas of relative weakness. The report forecasts that the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$49.5bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 8.4% of Poland’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 822,000 people, or 6.0% of the labour force, in 2008. We see that figure staying roughly constant to 2013.
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