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Poland Freight Transport Report Q2 2010
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Poland |
Published |
9 March 2010 |
Number of Pages |
63 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The European Investment Bank (EIB) in December announced two loans totalling EUR825mn to fund the development of Poland’s road transport infrastructure. The EIB is one of the main sponsors of road projects in Poland, with commitments to the A2 motorway project alone totalling EUR2.1bn. The first loan is for EUR325mn, and is to support the rehabilitation of the local road network in Poland, including paving roads and bridges. The second loan is for EUR500mn, and is for construction of the section of motorway linking Lódz and Warsaw. The loans will be granted to Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) on behalf of the National Road Fund of the Republic of Poland, and will be promoted by Poland’s road authority, GDDKiA. The contracts for construction of the section of the A2 linking Lódz and Warsaw have already been awarded, with China Overseas Engineering, SRB Civil Engineering and Strabag all winning contracts. According to previous comments from GDDKiA, this section will likely cost EUR1.02bn to build. Poland has embarked on a massive overhaul of its road transport infrastructure in an attempt to bring its network in line with EU standards. In 2007, the country launched the National Road Construction Programme (2007-2015), which is planned to oversee an investment of US$60bn in the country’s roads. What follows are our latest macroeconomic figures which may update those given in the previous section. We estimate GDP growth in 2009 was 1.2% (no change) and continue, as before, to project 3.4% expansion in 2010. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect annual GDP growth to average 3.9%, down from 4.5% in the preceding five-year period. The effect on our freight traffic forecasts for the period as a whole, compared with the preceding one, is therefore negative.
As a result of problems with new motorway construction, we had earlier trimmed the projection for road haulage growth. We also reduced expected pipeline throughput in 2009-2010 to reflect a cutback of Russian throughput. Maritime freight carried projections were also reduced to reflect the sharp contraction of international trade in 2009. The outcome of these changes is that we now expect annual average growth in freight carried across all modes, measured in mntkm of 4.4% during the forecast period of 2010-2014.
According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 1.4% in 2009, 0.2 of a percentage point ahead of GDP. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to outpace the economy as a whole in value terms, but by a small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.1%, versus 3.9% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$58.1bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 8.4% of Poland’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 822,000 people, or 6.0% of the labour force, in 2009. We see that figure staying virtually constant to 2013.
Our overall forecast for freight carried in Poland is for moderate growth based on the country’s slower but still reasonable economic growth rate and its openness to foreign trade. The transport sector still has to play catch-up, however, given infrastructure limitations in road and rail.
As indicated, for the five-year period running up to 2014, we now expect freight carried to increase by an annual average of 4.4%, a weaker performance than in the preceding period. We see the best performing sector being airfreight with annual average growth of 5.7%. Despite positive long-term fundamentals, the airfreight picture is overshadowed by the current global downturn in the industry and LOT’s financial difficulties. In maritime freight, the downturn in trade levels will remain a key factor, with gradual recovery from 2010 onwards. Because of the abrupt fall in 2009, maritime freight carried will grow by a relatively low annual average of 3.4% over the next five years. Pipeline throughput will grow by an average of 4.9% per annum, with a one-off cut back in Russian volume through the Druzhba pipeline in 2009 eventually being offset. Road haulage will grow by 5.5% per annum. Here, we believe strong demand for haulage will continue to be held back somewhat by the slow rate of improvement of Poland’s highway network. Finally, rail freight will grow by an annual average of 4.6%, as the process of reform and deregulation begins to take hold.
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