The shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland has taken a step closer with a consortium led by Royal Boskalis Westminster (Boskalis) winning the US$211mn tender to build an LNG terminal at the port of Swinoujscie. BMI believes the construction of the terminal is set to change the make-up of Polands maritime sector, which until now has been geared towards catering for containers and dry bulk cargos such as coal.

The terminal and its pipeline infrastructure are part of Polands gas import diversification strategy, which is planned to lessen the countrys reliance on Russia for its gas. As well seeking diversification of its gas supplies, Poland needs to boost its gas imports as consumption is increasing while production is falling. The country is developing gas-fired power stations that will need to be fuelled, with Radoslaw Dudzinski, CEO of Polands state-owned Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), estimating an additional 1.5-2GW of power could be brought online by 2015. The construction of the terminal is planned to be completed by the end of 2012. The launch date gives the terminal plenty of preparation time before its first shipment of LNG, which is due, according to BMIs oil and gas desk estimates, in 2014. We expect cargo handled at two of Polands key ports, the Port of Gdansk and the Port of Gdynia, to grow at a moderate rate this year in general tonnage terms. The Port of Gdansk throughput will increase by 6.6% to 20.11mn tonnes, following a good 2009 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes grew 6.1% to 18.86mn tonnes last year). This year total volume at the Port of Gdynia will gain 7.2% to 14.21mn tonnes. Last year volumes there dropped by 14.3% to 13.26mn tonnes.

At the Port of Gdansk container movements will grow by a staggering 58.8% to 382,050 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this year, overtaking the Port of Gdynia as the countrys largest container port. Gdynias box volumes are expected to be down by 23.3% to 288,213TEUs. Port of Gdansk s growth has been consistently positive in recent years, greatly aided by Maersk Lines switch from Gdynia, where container volumes stayed almost flat (-0.59%, y-o-y) in 2008 and slumped by 38.5% in 2009. Affected by the global recession, Polands total trade fell by 11.2% in real terms in 2009, and we see a slow 3.5% rebound in 2010, followed by 5.6% growth in 2011. This year exports will grow more strongly than imports in real terms (4.0% vs 3.0%).