Qatar Shipping Report Q4 2010

In our view Qatar's small population size is countered by its consumer spending power, making container shipping a vital part of Qatar's maritime make-up. For the long term of this sector, it is therefore imperative that Qatar has the right transport network in place. The country is investing not only in a new airport and railway network, but also a new port, the New Doha Port, which is due online 2015. The port will offer capacity for 2mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) a year, and considering that throughput at the nation's current port of Doha is estimated at 475,670TEUs for 2010 the New Doha port will offer more than enough capacity for the foreseeable future. It is possible that Qatar will seek to use the new facility for transhipment of containers for other countries in the region.

Qatar Container Shipping Key Views:

- Requirement for new port facility after current port surpassed its capacity
- Small population means that demand for containers will be small in comparison with regional
neighbours
- Qatar's location offers excellent links to other Gulf States, but ability to develop as a
transhipment point likely to be thwarted by the ever-dominant Jebel Ali
- Domestic shipping lines likely to remain geared toward catering for LNG transit, though
opportunities in the container feeder sector, between UAE and Qatar, do exist.

Although BMI believes that the global container shipping sector is in for a tougher H2 following an uptick in the box shipping sector in H1, we believe that Qatar's container demand is relatively sheltered from external shocks as the country's port, according to BMI's estimates, managed to grow in 2009 by an estimated 3.8%, a feat few ports worldwide could accomplish in the midst of the downturn. Having said that, the nation's consumers do appear to be getting jittery, with consumer confidence in the emirate, according to the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence, falling. This offers downside risk to our forecast that container throughput at the port of Doha will reach 475,670TEUs in 2010, year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 9%.

Global Container Shipping Key Views:

- Y-o-y recovery, but not near 2008 levels
- Consumer demand in core box markets of US and Europe to fall
- Weakening demand view starting to play out as peak-season surcharges delayed
- Recovery signs in H1 may have been misleading
- Intra-Asia trade routes an area of potential growth and development