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Serbia Freight Transport Report 2010
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
|
Published |
22 December 2009 |
Number of Pages |
49 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Dusan Bajatovic, general manager of Serbian state energy company Srbijagas, said in October that the country would become a major hub for the distribution of Russian gas to Europe, thanks to the increase in storage and transport capacity it would experience as a result of the South Stream pipeline. South Stream is a project led by Russian gas monopoly Gazprom to pump gas into Southern Europe. Some 470km of the pipeline will run through Serbia, with the capacity to pump between 36- 41bn cubic metres per year (cmy). Bajatovic said Srbijagas and Gazprom had also agreed to build gas storage tanks in Serbia, with the capacity to hold up to 7bn cubic metres of gas. ‘That will make Serbia the regional energy leader and we will be able to distribute the gas for Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, and maybe Bulgaria,’ he commented. Gas transit taxes would generate as much as EUR500mn (US$747mn) in revenue for Serbia. Bajatovic made his comments shortly after Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, paid an official visit to Serbia to sign an agreement to create joint ventures between the two countries, to build the Serbian section of South Stream and a gas storage facility. Russia also agreed to provide a US$1bn loan to Serbia.
The report is forecasting that the Serbian economy will grow at an annual average rate of 3.6% over 2010- 2014. We believe that the freight transport sector will grow fractionally more slowly at 3.5% per annum over the same period, measured in measured in million-tonne kms (mntkm). The drive for this growth will be continued recovery from the disruption caused by the wars of the 1990s and the recession of 2009, and the potential of closer integration with the EU and in particular with neighbouring new EU members. This, together with Serbia’s role as an East-West transit corridor, should lead to greater demand for freight across road haulage, rail, pipeline and river transport modes.
According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP was set to fall by 2.7% in 2009, less steeply than the wider economy, which contracted by 3.8%. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector will outpace the economy as a whole in value growth terms. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.0%, versus 3.6% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$5.8bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 9.1% of Serbia’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 172,300 people in 2009.
In terms of transport modes, we see the greatest growth in pipeline throughput, up by an annual average of 4.5%, mainly as a result of the new pipeline agreement with Russia’s Gazprom. Road freight will come in second place, expanding by an average of 4.3% a year, lifted by expansion of motorway capacity and growing trade with neighbouring countries. We expect rail freight to grow by 3.3%, somewhat dampened by continuing uncertainty over the government’s privatisation plans.
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