Slovenia Freight Transport Report 2009

In late November 2008, transport minister Patrick Vlacic said Slovenia would not be introducing shortterm road toll stickers (also known as vignettes) in the immediate future, but would consider the possibility as part of a review of the road tax system. Speaking at a press conference, Vlacic said this was intended as a ‘positive’ signal to the European Commission, which had ruled that the absence of shortterm stickers was discriminatory against foreign drivers passing through the country in transit. The government wanted to maintain a system introduced in July where the tax discs were sold with validity for 12 months (EUR55) or six months (EUR35), but not for shorter periods. The German and Austrian governments said this discriminated against many of their motorists who regularly travelled through Slovenia on short one-off trips. Croatia also complained, as it felt its tourism industry would be negatively affected. The Commission formally warned Slovenia over the new system’ officials in Brussels suggested that a vignette valid for a period of seven to 10 days ‘could be a satisfactory solution’.

The minister said a special task force from the ministries of transport, economic affairs and finance would be set up to propose changes to the road tax system to boost revenue. He did not rule out issuing shorterterm vignettes as required by the European Commission, but did not say when that might happen. Earlier in November, Slovenian media said that The European Commission had suspended a EUR40mn loan intended to support highway construction, because of the Ljubljana government’s refusal to respond to its request to introduce short-term vignettes. The loan had been intended for the state highway agency DARS and was supposed to support construction of the Slivnica-Drazenci section of a cross-country highway running from Sentilj on the border with Austria to Macelj on the border with Croatia.

In our latest Slovenia Freight Transport report, BMI concludes that despite the European growth slowdown, road freight traffic will rise strongly in the 2009-2013 forecast period, registering average annual growth of 5.0%.

Despite a slower 2009, the forecast is based on a reasonably healthy economy and growing trade. We estimate GDP growth of5.0 % in 2008, easing to 3.5% in 2009. The average annual rate of expansion in 2009-2013 is projected at 3.3%. The picture is moderately positive for the wider freight industry. The road haulage business also benefits form strong foreign trade through Slovenia’s Adriatic port of Koper.

Overall, BMI projects annual average growth in freight carried across all modes at 3.7% in the 2009-2013 period, driven by the effects of EU membership and strong trade flows. Apart from road haulage, rail freight carried will also rise (largely based on Slovenia’s transit freight business) but we expect this to be at a much more modest annual average rate of 2%. As a result, road’s share of total domestic and international freight carried will continue to edge up from 10% in 1999 to 13% in 2005, and a predicted 14% in 2013. The third – and biggest – contribution to the freight business comes from maritime cargo moving through Koper. Given the progressive commercial outlook of the port authorities, tonnage passing through Koper is forecast to increase sharply, although 2009 is likely to see a fall. We are predicting that maritime freight carried will rise by an annual average of 3.6% in the forecast period. The construction of a new entrance to the Port of Koper and its connection with the new motorway between Koper and Ljubljana should further enhance the throughput of the port in relation to nearby competitors. BMI’s freight transport business environment rating gives Slovenia a composite score of 41.5, placing it close to the average for its European peers. The country is an attractive environment for the freight transport business mainly because of its strengths in long-term political and economic risk, infrastructure growth and the regulatory environment. Freight growth and transport intensity (a measure of the dynamism of foreign trade) are also satisfactory. There is, however, room for improvement in the competitive environment.

The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$3.6bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 7.4% of Slovenia’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 60,000 people, or 6.6% of the labour force, in 2008. We see those figures holding broadly steady to 2013.