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Turkey Freight Transport Report Q2 2009
Market |
Logistics |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Turkey |
Published |
21 May 2009 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
In April, Italy and Russia were holding talks over expanding the Blue Stream pipeline, which currently transports gas from Russia to Turkey, and on to Italy, according to Italian industry minister Claudio Scajola. The two countries are already partners in Blue Stream. Italy's Eni signed a Strategic Alliance with Gazprom in February 1998 to develop projects together in third countries and to conduct joint activities in gas transportation. Under that agreement, Eni and Gazprom developed the US$3.4bn Blue Stream gas pipeline that transports 16bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia to Turkey at full capacity. Eni's Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni met his Gazprom counterpart Alexei Miller in Moscow on April 6 to discuss the companies' energy co-operation. Bloomberg has reported that Italy is considering two possible expansion routes for Blue Stream, one ending in the southern town of Brindisi and the other in the northern town of Trieste.
In our latest Turkey Freight Transport Report, it is concluded that freight carried across all modes of transport, measured in million tonnes-km (mntkm) is set to grow by an annual average of 2.9% across the 2009-2013 forecast period. Various factors support this prediction. As a result of the current sharp recession, Turkish economic growth will average 2.3% per annum in the next five years, less than half the 6.1% rate achieved in the preceding five years. More importantly, however, Turkey is set to become a pipeline hub for Europe. The BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan) and the Nabucco line are among several projects, initially devised to meet Turkish energy demand, that have also drawn growing European interest as a gas supply route from the energy-rich Caspian. Among other plans for the energy corridor are an oil pipeline between Samsun on the Black Sea and Ceyhan, as well as two gas pipelines from Russia, which wants to extend the Blue Stream pipeline to Israel. Turkey receives gas via a pipeline from Iran, while the Shakh-Deniz project, now functioning, is bringing Azerbaijani gas from the Caspian to Turkey.
Pipeline developments are a bright spot against a generally subdued outlook for the freight sector as a whole, because of the adverse international economic climate in 2009. By the end of the forecast period to 2013, sea freight is anticipated to be the largest sub-sector, accounting for approximately 50% of all shipments, compared with 43% for road freight. By transport mode, we expect the fastest growing to be airfreight (annual average of 4.1%), followed by pipeline throughput (3.8%), maritime cargo at 3.2%, road haulage at 2.5%, and rail freight at 1.3%. With a score of 60.5 out of 100, Turkey’s overall freight rating is just above the average for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Turkey scores well in terms of infrastructure growth, regulatory and competitive environments, and the transport intensity index.
For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.5%, versus 2.3% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$103.8bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 11.4% of Turkey’s GDP.
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