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About the Retail Industry

Global Retail Markets

The global retail markets returned to growth in 2010 thanks in part to the government stimulus programmes. Coordinated government initiatives have resulted in consumers continuing to purchase goods. China's retail sales expanded by over 16% in 2010 which helped offset declines in other important Asian economies such as Japan and India. Interestingly, Asia and Australasia were the only regions outside the Middle East and North Africa to post real sales growth in 2009. Asia is expected to report average growth of 6% during the period 2010 to 2014 which is approximately 2 to 3 percentage points higher than global growth forecast.

In terms of retail sales it is the Latin American and Middle East and North Africa regions which are forecast to report the strongest growth along with Asian countries.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (2007-09 estimates & 2010-14 forecasts)
* Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine

By the end of 2014, the Latin American region is expected to report sales of US$1.9 trillion compared to Western Europe with US$2.74 trillion sales. Interestingly, Western Europe will represent the second smallest regional market in the World for retail sales in 2014. North America is forecast to report retail sales of US$4.53 trillion in 2014.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (2007-09 estimates & 2010-14 forecasts)

Asia Retail Industry

The Asian retail markets were remarkably resilient throughout the economic downturn in 2009. The domestic retailers and multinational retailers are increasing investment in Asia as the outlook for the retail industry in this region is set to continue healthy growth over the next five years.

Asian countries are set to report increase in retail sales in the mid-single digits except for Japan where the continuing weak economy and low consumer confidence is expected to constrain growth.

In Asia, operations of some of the larger hypermarkets are expected to go through some consolidation of their operations especially in the more dynamic markets. However, the multinational retailers such as Wal-Mart, Tesco and Metro will continue to expand their operations in Asia.

In the first half of 2010, China online sales grew 60% year-on-year growth over 2009 although overall, the sector remains underdeveloped. A few successful Asian platforms such as China's Taobao and Japan's Rakuten seem to have secured winning formulas. China also represents the most important market for luxury good sales in Asia and one of the most important going forwards in the World. By contrast, India posted a relatively low percentage of luxury goods sales as a result of the country's lower level of affluence relative to China's.

Retail Sales in Asia are forecast to total US$5.4 trillion in 2010 and grow to more than US$8.5 trillion in 2014.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (2007-08 figures are actual, 2009 estimates and 2010-14 forecasts)