The Q112 BMI Argentina Retail Report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow from ARS66.86bn (US$21.22bn) in 2011 to ARS82.52bn (US$26.20bn) in 2015. An expanding population, rising disposable income and a taste for luxury items are key factors behind the forecast growth in Argentinas retail sales.

Argentinas nominal GDP is predicted to be US$389.05bn in 2011, with a real GDP increase of 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) forecast for the year. With the population forecast to increase from 40.8mn in 2011 to 42.2mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$11,384 in 2015.

In 2005, 63.2% of the Argentine population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.8% in the 20-44 age range. A massive 90.6% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to include more than 93% of the total population, with 38.0% aged 20-44. By this time, 64.9% of the population is expected to be economically active.

Efforts to rebuild credit following the financial and political crises in 1999-2002 had a positive impact on consumer expenditure and, consequently, retail sales. In attempts to repair consumer confidence, banks and retailers introduced more favourable terms for issuing consumer credit. Retailers, particularly larger ones, established more flexible payment options to encourage expenditure.

Tourism plays an important part in Argentine retail sales. In 2010, the country attracted 2.65mn international tourists and US$3.4bn in tourism receipts, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), increasing from 2009 by 27.1% and 25.9% y-o-y respectively.

Retail sub-sectors likely to grow strongly over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise by more than 33% between 2011 and 2015, from US$21.66bn to US$28.87bn. Growth in mass grocery retail (MGR) sales is expected to outstrip overall food sales at more than 39%, with MGRs share of the overall food market predicted to grow from 24.2% in 2011 to 25.3% by 2015.

Consumer electronic sales are forecast to grow by nearly 38%, from US$5.34bn in 2011 to US$7.35bn by 2015, with a PC penetration rate of about 22%, indicating that there is plenty of room for growth in the computers segment in particular.

Vehicle sales are forecast to increase by nearly 29% between 2011 and 2015, from 856,082 to 1,101,847 units. In H110, the market shifted 40% more vehicles – 318,567 units – than in the same period a year earlier, signalling a robust recovery from sales of 487,142 units for the whole of 2009.

Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2011 are expected to reach US$1,344bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMIs macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$3.004trn. Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for an estimated 74.0% of regional retail sales in 2011, with the two countries still likely to account for 72.5% of all retail sales in the region by 2015. Argentinas predicted 2011 market share of 1.6% is expected to fall to 1.3% by 2015.