Mexico Retail Report Q4 2010

The Q410 BMI Mexico Retail report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from MXN2,255bn (US$180.39bn) in 2010 to MXN2,603bn (US$250.89bn) by 2014. Increasing affluence, a growing population – including a larger number of young people – and the continuing development of organised retail infrastructure are the key factors behind the forecast growth in Mexico's retail sales.

Mexico's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$898.87bn in 2010, with 2009's 6.5% decline expected to turn into growth of 4.4% in 2010 as the economy begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 3.0% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 108.5mn in 2010 to a forecast 112.2mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 47.7% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$12,230. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from a predicted US$5,795 in 2010 to US$8,614 in 2014.

Mexico is the world's 11th largest country in terms of population. Almost 55% of Mexicans are 24 years old or younger, one of the highest percentages for an upper-middle income economy in the world. The proportion in the 20-44 age range, crucial for retail sales, is also high at 39.4% and is forecast to rise to 41.5% in 2010, according to the UN Population Division. In 2005, 63.6% of Mexicans were described by the UN as economically active and this is forecast to reach 66.3% in 2010. The trend towards urbanisation is predicted to continue, with the proportion of those living in towns and cities in 2005 estimated at 76% by the UN and forecast to reach 77.4% in 2010.
Consumer credit grew strongly in the years up to 2008. In 2006 alone, banks approved 8.7mn new credit cards, awarding 40% of the new accounts to customers with no previous credit history. There were estimated to be 29mn credit cards in circulation in Mexico in 2008, up from an estimated 22mn in 2007. The number of debit cards is put at 11mn. However, access to credit tightened considerably during 2009.

Retail sub-sectors forecast to show strong growth include food and drink, up by 51.5%, from a predicted US$63.22bn in 2010 to US$95.78bn in 2014; over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, up by 46.2%, from US$1.57bn to US$2.29bn; and consumer electronics, up by 45.0% between 2010 and 2014, from US$10.40bn to US$15.09bn. According to BMI data, vehicle sales are forecast to rise by 49.2% during the forecast period, from US$1.67bn to US$2.50bn.

Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil together are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010, with those two countries plus Venezuela forecast to account for 84.6% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. Mexico's predicted 2010 market share of 15.7% is expected to fall to 13.7% by 2014.