BMIs Q112 Peru retail report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow from an expected PEN111.66bn (US$38.20bn) in 2011, to PEN150.11bn (US$51.36bn) by 2015, representing a rise of 34.4%. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population and a steady increase in real wages are key factors behind this forecast growth.

Perus nominal GDP is predicted to reach US$166.1bn in 2011, with real GDP growth of 6.7% y-o-y expected for the year. Average annual GDP growth of 5.3% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population forecast to increase from an estimated 29.4mn in 2011 to 30.8mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 48.2% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$8,121 in 2015. In 2005, the UN described 64.0% of the Peruvian population as economically active, with 39.3% in the 20-44 age range. Nearly three-quarters of the population – 74.6% – was classified as urban. In 2010, the urban population is estimated to have been 76.4% of the total, with 39.9% aged 20-44, and 66.2% of the population economically active.

Easier access to consumer credit has boosted retail sales in Peru. The number of credit cards in circulation in the country rose from 210,000 in 1996 to 6mn in 2009, with consumers using them to make purchases totalling PEN10bn (US$3.33bn), according to Asociación de Bancos del Perú (Asbanc). Banco del Trabajo predicts that 80% of Perus urban households will have at least one credit card by 2016.

Retail sub-sectors that are expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise from US$16.73bn in 2011 to US$24.23bn by 2015, up by nearly 45%. Growth in mass grocery retail (MGR) sales is expected to outstrip that of overall food sales at 55%, with MGRs share of the overall food market predicted to grow from 11.4% in 2011 to 12.2% by 2015. Consumer electronics sales are forecast to grow by almost 52%, from an expected US$1.97bn in 2011, to US$2.99bn by 2015. Peru is set to be one of the fastest growing consumer electronics markets in the region, with a projected 2011-2015 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4%.

Vehicle sales are forecast to increase from an estimated 136,800 units in 2011, to 216,590 units by 2015, representing growth of more than 58%.

Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2011 are expected to reach US$1,344bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMIs macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$3,004bn. Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for an estimated 74.0% of regional retail sales in 2011, with the two countries still likely to account for 72.5% of all retail sales in the region by 2015. Perus predicted 2011 market share of 2.8% is expected to fall to 2.6% by 2015.