The Q410 BMI Peru Retail Report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow from PEN109.08bn (US$37.32bn) in 2010 to PEN142.57bn (US$48.78bn) by 2014. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population and a steady increase in real wages are key factors behind the forecast growth in Perus retail sales.

Perus nominal GDP is predicted to be US$147.71bn in 2010, with 2009s estimated growth of 0.9% expected to increase to 5.9% in 2010 as the economy continues to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from an estimated 29.5mn in 2010 to a forecast 30.8mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 41.4% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,962 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$3,239 in 2010 to US$4,505 by 2014.

In 2005, 64.0% of the Peruvian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 39.3% in the 20-44 age range. Nearly three-quarters, 74.6%, of the population was classified by the UN as urban. In 2010, the urban population is forecast to reach 76.4% of the total, with 39.9% in the 20-44 age band and 66.2% of the population expected to be economically active.

Easier access to consumer credit has boosted retail sales in Peru. The number of credit cards in circulation in the country rose from 210,000 in 1996 to 6mn in 2009, with consumers using them to make purchases totalling PEN10bn (US$3.33bn), according to Asociación de Bancos del Perú (Asbanc). Banco del Trabajo predicts that by 2016, 80% of Perus urban households will have at least one credit card. Retail sub-sectors that are expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise from US$16.80bn in 2010 to US$24.02bn by 2014, up by 42.9%). Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$0.33bn in 2010 to US$0.54bn by 2014, rising by 65.9%, while consumer electronic sales are forecast to grow by 56.7%, from US$1.72bn in 2010 to US$2.69bn by the end of the forecast period. Vehicle sales are forecast to increase from an estimated US$0.30bn in 2010 to US$0.40bn by 2014, which is growth of 33.7%.

Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMIs macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010, with those two countries plus Venezuela forecast to account for 84.6% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. For Peru, the predicted 2010 market share of 3.2% is expected to fall marginally to 2.7% by 2014.