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Poland Retail Report Q3 2010
Market |
Retail |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Poland |
Published |
3 June 2010 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
File Format |
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The Q310 Poland Retail report forecasts that the country?s total retail sales will increase by nearly 28% in local currency terms by 2014, growing from a predicted PLN387.16bn (US$138.91bn) in 2010 to PLN494.65bn (US$188.87bn). Rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, and increased car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 6.5%.
Polands nominal GDP is predicted to be US$509.59bn in 2010, up from US$452.57bn in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 3.9% is forecast between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is expected to decrease slightly, from 38.0mn in 2010 to 37.9mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 38% by 2014, reaching US$18,491. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for it to increase from a predicted US$8,910 in 2010 to US$11,381 by 2014.
With approximately 38mn people, Poland is the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 37% of all citizens 20-44 years old, according to UN Population Division data. This proportion is forecast to rise to more than 38% in 2010 and represents a key element of future retail spending.
In 2008, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), the biggest increase in sales (38.7%) came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups with high sales were books and stationery (20.9%), and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (15.8%). The trend for increased spending on non-essential, non-food items is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track more closely Western European purchasing trends. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland.
Retail sub-sectors that are likely to achieve steady growth over the period include automotives, with a forecast that sales will rise from a predicted US$5.60bn in 2010 to US$7.80bn in 2014, an increase of more than 39%. Consumer electronic sales are forecast to rise by nearly 29%, from a predicted US$6.71bn in 2010 to US$8.62bn in 2014. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by more than 23%, from US$2.98bn in 2010 to US$3.67bn by 2014.
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