The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

BMIs Q112 South Africa Retail Report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow by 50.7% from an estimated ZAR622.91bn (US$75.53bn) in 2011 to ZAR938.59bn (US$113.81bn) in 2015. Key factors behind this expansion will be underlying economic growth, rising disposable income, falling unemployment, increasing urbanisation and the emergence of a black middle class.

South Africas nominal GDP is estimated to be US$416.0bn for 2011, with 2010s real growth rate of 2.8% forecast increasing to 3.2% as the economy continues to recover. With the population increasing from an expected 50.5mn in 2011 to an estimated 51.4mn in 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$12,056 by the end of this forecast period.

Consumer spending is being lifted by foreign visitors to South Africa. Following a difficult 2009, foreign visitor numbers are again on the increase. Boosted by the football World Cup, the country recorded a 15.1% increase in tourist arrivals in 2010 to more than 8mn. Data for January-May 2011 show a favourable 7.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in tourist arrivals. Tourist expenditure was expected to increase from US$11.63mn in 2010 to US$12.90mn in 2011, then to US$14.09mn in 2012.

In 2005, 64.1% of the South African population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.8% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2015, 64.3% of the population is expected to be economically active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age range is forecast to reach 38%. Growing urbanisation is also contributing to the vibrant retail sector, with a 26% increase in the number of urban households between 1994 and 2005. In 2005, less than 58% of the population was classified by the UN as urban but this is forecast to increase to more than 64% by 2015.

According to BMI data, sales of consumer electronics are expected to increase from US$8.22bn in 2011 to US$12.10bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of more than 47%. South Africas tech-literate, high-end consumer electronics market is the largest in Africa, and youthful demographics, rising incomes and a regional economic boom should all support expansion. Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to grow by nearly 64%, from US$0.39bn in 2011 to US$0.63bn by 2015.

Vehicle sales are forecast to rise by nearly 88% from an expected 509,834 units in 2011 to 956,399 units in 2015. The size of the country, significant rural land coverage and the agricultural sector provide a substantial market for four-wheel drive vehicles, light pick-ups and SUVs.

We estimate that overall food consumption in South Africa in 2011 will account for 67.7% of total retail sales worth an estimated US$51.14bn. This is forecast to increase to 72.3% of overall retail sales by 2015. The South African mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, comfortably Africas largest in terms of value, is estimated to have been worth US$30.1bn in 2011. BMI expects its value to rise to US$51.2bn by 2015. Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2012 are predicted to amount to US$287.73bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMIs macroeconomic database, is forecast at US$788.24bn. In 2012, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 58.0% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 15.1%. By 2015, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 58.5%. We put growth in regional retail sales for the period from 2012 to 2015 at 34.6%, or an average 10.4% per annum.