Overview 1
Introduction 1
SUMMARY 1
Christmas spending down as non-food doubles its drop of Q4 2008 to £1.3bn; 1
VAT cut a significant factor in decline in spending; 1
Exit of casualties has also reduced capacity for others to win; 1
Consumers will be the winners as retailers fight for their custom; 1
Women will stop this being the worst Christmas ever despite their intention to cut back; 1
Online will be the star yet again - despite the postal strike scare; 1
Electricals set to be biggest loser; 1
Not Armageddon, but survival of the fittest. 1
Executive Summary 2
KEY FINDINGS 2
Christmas spending down as non-food doubles its drop of Q4 2008 to £1.3bn 2
VAT cut a significant factor in decline in spending 2
Exit of casualties has also reduced capacity for others to win 2
Consumers will be the winners as retailers fight for their custom 2
Women will stop this being the worst Christmas ever despite their intention to cut back 2
Online will be the star yet again - despite the postal strike scare 3
Electricals set to be biggest loser 3
Not Armageddon, but survival of the fittest 3
Table of Contents 4
Table of figures 5
Table of tables 6
Analysis 7
Spending set to fall as unique factors take effect 7
Christmas 2009 headlines - expenditure falls for first time, but not retail Armageddon 8
Consumers - intending to cut back on expenditure and being more selective 13
Sector performance - only two show growth 17
Clothing & footwear - time for a new party dress 21
DIY & gardening - wrong time to move house 23
Electricals - little sparkle in the market 25
Food & grocery - we all have to eat, especially at Christmas 27
Furniture & floorcoverings - not a priority for consumers nervous about spending 29
Health & Beauty - looking and feeling good still a priority 31
Homewares - pretty up the house for visitors 33
Other sectors 35
- Toys 35
- Books, music & video 35
- Jewellery 35
- Others 35
Online - the saviour 36
APPENDIX 37
Methodology 37
Further reading 38
Ask the analyst 38
Verdict consulting 38
Disclaimer 39
List of Tables
Table 1: Spending intentions by age group for Christmas 2009 15
Table 2: Estimated expenditure, growth rates and year-on-year change in value by sector Q4 2009 17
Table 3: Estimated Y-o-Y change % in sector expenditure by value, volume and inflation Q4 2009e 17
Table 4: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary Q4 2009e 21
Table 5: DIY & gardening expenditure summary Q4 2009e 23
Table 6: Electricals summary expenditure Q4 2009e 25
Table 7: Food & grocery expenditure summary Q4 2009e 27
Table 8: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure summary Q4 2009e 29
Table 9: Health & beauty expenditure sector summary Q4 2009e 31
Table 10: Homewares expenditure summary Q4 2009e 33
Table 11: Online summary Q4 2009e 36
List of Figures
Figure 1: Summary of spending trends Christmas 2009 7
Figure 2: UK retail growth by quarter 2009e 8
Figure 3: Value change in retail expenditure Q4 2009e 9
Figure 4: Total spend and growth year-on-year in UK retail Q4 2009e 10
Figure 5: Y-o-Y change % in volume, inflation and value sales Q4 2005-2009e 11
Figure 6: Sector share of expenditure Q4 2009e 12
Figure 7: Spending intentions by gender for Christmas 2009 13
Figure 8: Spending intentions of UK population at Christmas 2009 14
Figure 9: Spending intentions by social class for Christmas 2009 14
Figure 10: Percentage of population by UK region intending to spend less at Christmas 2009 16
Figure 11: Major sector performance - value growth Q4 2009e 18
Figure 12: Major sector performance - volume growth Q4 2009e 19
Figure 13: Major sector performance - inflation/deflation Q4 2009e 20
Figure 14: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 22
Figure 15: DIY & gardening expenditure growth trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 24
Figure 16: Electricals expenditure growth trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 26
Figure 17: Food & grocery expenditure growth trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 28
Figure 18: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure growth trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 30
Figure 19: Health & beauty expenditure growth trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 32
Figure 20: Homewares growth expenditure trends vs non-food Q4 2009e 34
Figure 21: Forecasting methodology 37