TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13
Key findings 13
Main conclusions 14
Town centre summary 19
CHAPTER 2 RETAIL ISSUES 20
Recession confirms long term decline line 21
High street turmoil turns slowdown into downturn 21
Heightened frugality drives polarisation of demand 24
Consumer spending on non-food becomes much more considered 24
Traditional high street specialists struggle to remain relevant 26
Specialists fight waning relevance vs grocers, non-specialists and online 26
Much secondary retail space disappears 30
New premium space further damages secondary locations 30
Don’t pin hopes on planning and competition legislation 32
Favourable legislation will do little to aid town centres 32
Dealing with unwanted space through closer collaboration 35
Vacancy rates rise 35
Pop-up stores fill vacant spaces 38
Other landlord-led innovations emerge 41
CHAPTER 3 STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS 42
Retailers need to be lean and competive as market contracts 42
Landlord flexibility will protect rental income and asset value 43
CHAPTER 4 TOP 100 TOWN CENTRES & MALLS 44
Methodology 44
Top 10 47
Central London 47
Glasgow 48
Manchester 48
Birmingham 48
Leeds 49
Newcastle 50
Edinburgh 50
Nottingham 50
Kingston-upon-Thames 51
Milton Keynes 51
CHAPTER 5 TOWN CENTRE VS OTHER LOCATIONS 56
Growing pressure on town centre hits high street in particular 56
Retail sales by location 59
Town centre suffers from exposure to discretionary non-food retailers 59
Retail spend by location 61
Sales and sources of growth 63
Deflation and space closure drive declines 63
Space by location 65
Significant decline due to closures, collapses and cautious approach 65
Sales densities by location 67
Store numbers by location 69
Forecast 71
Continuing sector shakeout will see town centre diminish in significance 71
CHAPTER 6 SECTOR SUMMARIES 76
Shakeout in some sectors changes high street retailing forever 76
Books, news & stationery specialists 79
To bottom out in 2011-12 as liking for high street bookshop endures 79
Clothing & footwear specialists 82
Premium new space helps prop up sales growth 82
Department stores 85
Retailers seek new routes to growth as consumers become more frugal 85
Electricals specialists 88
Retailers close unprofitable high street stores 88
Food & grocery specialists 90
Impressive growth despite space consolidation 90
Furniture & floorcoverings specialists 93
Market in throes of painful contraction 93
General merchandisers 95
Woolworths collapse has major impact but value operators show growth 95
Health & beauty specialists 97
Recession proof sector achieves huge growth in sales densities 97
Music & video specialists 100
Sales transfer online – HMV last man standing on high street 100
CHAPTER 7 TOWN CENTRE WINNERS AND LOSERS 102
Huge changes on the high street 102
Total sales 103
Value orientated retailers prosper as discretionary spend declines 103
Operating profit 108
Deep discounting and weak sterling impact adversely on profitability 108
Operating margin 110
Town centre retailers experience marked decline in operating margins 110
Space 112
Renewed focus on improving exisiting space as rate of expansion slows 112
Sales densities 116
Sales densities decline as discretionary demand falls away 116
Store numbers 119
Short term opportunities exist as capacity falls out of the market 119
Advertising media expenditure 122
Advertising declines as town centre based retailers aim to cut costs 122
CHAPTER 8 NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS 123
Major retail developments in 2008 123
Three new centres perform solidly 123
Westfield London, White City 124
Benefits from prime location and differentiated proposition 124
Liverpool One 126
Raises city’s destination status 126
Cabot Circus, Bristol 127
Experiences a solid first year but challenges mount 127
Other significant developments in 2008 128
Developments in the pipeline 129
New developments tail off 129
St David’s II, Cardiff 132
Faces high vacancy levels on opening 132
Westfield Stratford, London 134
Westfield to further challenge supremacy of central London 134
On hold/cancelled developments 135
Uncertain outlook fosters new era of caution 136
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY 137
Terminology 137
Abbreviations 138

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Town centre sales and space 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013e 19
Table 2: Town centre retailers strategies for success 2009 42
Table 3: Town centre landlords strategies for success 2009 43
Table 4: Weighting of factors determining Top 100 centres in 2009 45
Table 5: 1-10 of Verdict’s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 47
Table 6: 11-30 of Verdict’s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 53
Table 7: 31-60 of Verdict’s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 54
Table 8: 61-100 of Verdict’s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 55
Table 9: Retail location definitions 2009 57
Table 10: Retail spending by location at current prices 1998-2009e 61
Table 11: Sales through town centre retailers 1998-2009e 63
Table 12: Sources of growth for town centre retailers 1998-2009e 64
Table 13: Town centre floorspace vs all stores 1998-2009e 65
Table 15: Sales densities by location at current prices 1998-2009e 67
Table 14: Store numbers by location 1998-2009e 69
Table 16: Town centre summary data 2003, 2008 & 2013 72
Table 17: Town centre vs total retail spending 1998-2013 73
Table 18: Town centre sales and share of sector 2009 78
Table 19: Books, news, stationery specialists in town centre 2004, 08 & 09 79
Table 20: Clothing & footwear specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 & 09 82
Table 21: Department stores in town centre 2004, 2008 and 2009 85
Table 22: Electricals specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009 88
Table 23: Food & grocery specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009 90
Table 24: Furniture & f’covering specialists in town centres 2004, 08 & 09 93
Table 25: General merchandise retailers in town centres 2004, 2008 & 09e 95
Table 26: Health & beauty specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009 97
Table 27: Music & video specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009 100
Table 28: Key town centre retailers UK turnover record 2004-2009 103
Table 29: Key town centre retailers operating profits 2004-2009 108
Table 30: Key town centre retailers operating margins 2004-2009 110
Table 31: Key town centre retailers total selling space 2004-2009 112
Table 33: Key town centre retailers densities 2004-2009 116
Table 32: Key town centre retailers total store numbers 2004-2009 119
Table 34: Top 12 town centre retailers by advertising expenditure 2009 122
Table 35: Major developments 2008 123
Table 36: Other new developments 2008 128
Table 37: Development pipeline 2009-2011 as at October 2009 130
Table 38: Development pipeline 2012-2015 as at October 2009 131
Table 39: On hold/cancelled developments 2009-2015 as at October 2009 135



LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Town centre retailing key issues 2010 20
Figure 2: Town centre sales growth rates % 1999-2009 21
Figure 3: Polarisation of demand 2009 24
Figure 4: Electricals channel shares – forecast changes 2013 on 2008 26
Figure 5: Specialist proposition diversification – HMV 2009 28
Figure 6: Timeline of major legislative developments 2005-2009 32
Figure 7: Estimated average vacancy rates June 2008 and June 2009 35
Figure 8: Verdict estimate of prime rental growth % 1999-2009 37
Figure 9: Gap 1969 Pop-up store 2009 39
Figure 10: Growth of retail sales by location 1998-2009e 59
Figure 11: Share of total retail expenditure by location 1998-2009e 62
Figure 12: Town centre proportion of total retail sales 2003, 2008 & 2013e 71
Figure 13: Retail spending growth vs town centre 1998-2013 74
Figure 14: Town centre sales sources of growth 1998-2013 75
Figure 15: Sector breakdown of town centre sales 2004 and 2013e 77
Figure 16: Books, news & stationery specialists town centre sales 2004-13e 79
Figure 17: Books, news & stationery specialist town centre space 2004-13e 80
Figure 18: Clothing & footwear specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e 82
Figure 19: Clothing & footwear specialists town centre space 2004-2013e 83
Figure 20: Department store town centre sales 2004-2013e 85
Figure 21: Department store town centre space 2004-2013e 86
Figure 22: Electricals specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e 88
Figure 23: Electricals specialists town centre space 2004-2013e 89
Figure 24: Food & grocery specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e 90
Figure 25: Food & grocery specialists town centre space 2004-2013e 91
Figure 26: Furniture & f’covering specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e 93
Figure 27: Furniture & f’covering specialists town centre space 2004-2013e 94
Figure 28: General merchandise retailers town centre sales 2004-2013e 95
Figure 29: Health & beauty specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e 97
Figure 30: Health & beauty specialists town centre space 2004-2013e 98
Figure 31: Music & video specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e 100
Figure 32: Music & video specialists town centre space 2004-2013e 101
Figure 33: Key town centre retailers sales growth (adj) 2009 on 2004 104
Figure 34: Key town centre retailers sales growth (adj) 2009 on 2008 105
Figure 35: Space growth of key town centre retailers (adj) 2009 on 2004 113
Figure 36: Space growth of key town centre retailers (adj) 2009 on 2008 114
Figure 37: Sales density growth of town centre stores 2009 on 2004 117
Figure 38: Sales density growth of town centre stores 2009 on 2008 118
Figure 39: Change % in key town centre retailers store nos 2009 on 2004 120
Figure 40: Change % in key town centre retailers store nos 2009 on 2008 121
Figure 41: Westfield London, White City 2009 124
Figure 42: Liverpool One 2009 126
Figure 43: Cabot Circus, Bristol 2009 127
Figure 44: St David’s 2, Cardiff 2010 132
Figure 45: Westfield Stratford, London 2010-11 134